A run of strong Thai exports this year should be welcome news for the trade-dependent economy, but rather than reflecting healthy shipments of goods such as cars or textiles speculative gold sales have often had an outsized influence.
In February alone, a 1,000% surge in gold exports to a record $1.89 billion contributed to the largest annual rise in overall exports for more than three years at 10.3%. Stripping out gold, year-on-year growth was just 0.3%.
Thailand is Asia's third-largest gold market after India and China, and has imported over $80 billion worth of the precious metal in the past decade. Most of that came as Thais joined a gold-buying rush when prices hit record highs in 2011.
The subsequent price fall left many sitting on gold worth less than when they purchased. The pile of gold in Thailand is so large that whenever international prices rally, the value of sales by people cutting holdings or speculating on future price moves distorts export figures.
"A lot of people made speculative investments in gold and they got stuck when prices came down," Bank of Thailand governor Veerathai Santiprabhob told Reuters.
"So when gold prices go up, it's an opportunity for them to release their gold inventory, and when they release the gold inventory it gets re-exported out of Thailand."
Total exports rose for two consecutive months for the first time in a year in February and March, driven partly by gold. But shipments shrank again in April as gold sales dropped to only $287 million.
"We've had some unusual items," said Mr Veerathai, when asked about the surprise rises in February and March.
He said, however, the central bank would retain its forecast for a 2% drop in overall exports this year, marking the fourth consecutive year that exports have shrunk.
Gold shipments in the first four months of the year were $3 billion, already approaching the $3.8 billion for all of 2015.
In China and Hong Kong, too, gold flows have changed. There, investors and consumers who bought at low prices in 2013 have sold to cash in on the price rebound. Sales were so high that the typical flows of gold from Europe to China went into reverse earlier this year.
Thailand's May exports may also get a boost from gold after gold's spot price hit a 15-month high of $1,303.6 per ounce early in the month. The price has picked up again in mid-June after a dip toward the end of May.
"There should be some impact from gold and we expect May exports to have contracted less than April's (8% fall)," said Pimonwan Mahujchariyawong, senior economist of Kasikorn Research Center.
There is plenty more gold to ship. Exports in the past decade have totalled about $43 billion, only half the value of imports. The Bank of Thailand declined to release an estimate of how much gold is held in the country.
Thailand produces 3-4 tonnes a year but imports on average around 200 tonnes, said Industry Minister Atchaka Sibunruang. Gold production will end soon after Thailand ordered the only gold mine to shut down due to environmental concerns.
In the bustling Chinatown, gold shops are empty and bored employees stare at their mobile phones. Slow growth means consumers have little cash to spend on gold.
"I've been in this business a long time," said Suviwat Ngamtangjitsakul, a gold shop employee who says business is the worst he's seen in 30 years. "But I have never seen anything like this before. The economy is not in good shape."
Local gold prices jumped by 400 baht to 21,800 baht per baht-weight at 4pm on Thursday. The prices were adjusted four times, indicating high volatilty as stocks took a hit from Brexit concerns.
The Gold Traders Association announced the buying price at 21,800 baht and the selling price at 21,700 baht per baht-weight for bullion as of 4pm on Thursday.
For ornaments, the buying and selling prices were 21,314.96 baht and 22,300 baht per baht-weight respectively.