Recap: Brexit fear triggered a global equity sell-off for most of last week and compelled investors to reallocate assets to safe havens, while the US Federal Reserve's decision to lower its GDP forecast also added to the caution. The Thai stock market also struggled before rallying on Friday.
The SET index moved in a range of 1,410.26 and 1,436.65 points and closed at 1,421.32, down 0.6% from the previous week, in turnover averaging 47.2 billion baht a day. Retail investors were the largest net buyers at 9.09 billion baht, followed by brokers at 271.1 million and foreign investors at 119.12 million. Institutional investors were net sellers of 9.48 billion baht.
Big movers: NETBAY surged 182.5% above its 4-baht IPO price on the first day of its trade on the MAI on June 16 to 11.30 baht and closed the week at 9.70 baht. Top gainer BFIT jumped 32.3% to 8.66 baht, while top loser INET dipped 17.3% to 4.30 baht. IEC led in volume, unchanged at 0.03 baht. Leading in turnover were CPALL, up 6.5% to 48.50 baht; AAV, up 5.1% to 6.20 baht; and BANPU, adding 6.6% to 12.90 baht.
Newsmakers: The Fed signalled that it foresees an exceedingly slow pace of interest rate hikes ahead -- and is in no hurry to resume them. In remarks following a two-day policy meeting last week at which rates did not move, Fed chairwoman Janet Yellen pointed to concern about the referendum this week in Britain for a start. As well, the Fed now expects just 2% growth both this year and next for the US, down from a previous forecast of 2.2% for this year and 2.1% for 2017.
US retail sales rose strongly in May as Americans bought automobiles and a range of other goods, even as they paid more for gasoline, suggesting that economic growth was gaining momentum despite a susprisingly sharp slowdown in job creation in the same month.
Fitch Ratings cut its rating outlook on Japanese government bonds to negative from stable, citing a lack of specific steps to achieve fiscal reform goals in light of a delay in the sales tax increase. It left Japan's 'A' credit rating unchanged, after downgrading the heavily indebted country last year.
Fixed-asset investment growth in China slipped below 10% for the first time since 2000 in January-May as the boost from record credit growth seemed to be fading already. Private investment so far this year has been the slowest since China began publishing the data in 2012.
China failed again to convince the US index provider MSCI to add local Chinese shares to its key emerging markets index. It said China still had to do more to make its equity markets more accessible to foreign investors.
Indonesia's central bank cut its benchmark interest rates by 25 basis points in a surprise move aimed at reviving the economy. The new 12-month reference rate is 6.50% and the seven-day reverse repurchase rate is 5.25%.
Bank of Thailand governor Veerathai Santiprabhob warns that investors should brace for wild swings in the global capital markets if Britons vote on Thursday to leave the EU. The central bank has policy tools to prevent volatility from derailing Thailand's recovery, he added.
Electronic fund transfers under the new national e-payment system will undercut the banks by offering free service for transactions not exceeding 5,000 baht. PromptPay fees will be no more than two baht for transfers of 5,000 to 30,000 baht; five baht for 30,000 to 100,000 baht; and 10 baht maximum for transfers of 100,000 baht up to the maximum allowed by each bank.
Asia Aviation Plc (AAV) boss Tassapon Bijleveld and his spouse have sold a 39% stake in the AirAsia Thailand operator to the duty-free billionaire and King Power chairman Vichai Srivaddhanaprabha and his children for 7.94 billion baht.
Fitch Ratings has cut its outlook for Bank of Ayudhya (BAY) and the consumer lender Easy Buy to negative from stable after downgrading views of their respective Japanese parent companies. The revisions follow those to BAY parent Bank of Tokyo-Mitsubishi UFJ and Easy Buy parent Acom. That came after it cut the Japanese sovereign outlook to negative from stable on Monday.
Central Plaza Hotel (Centel) expects record-breaking results this year despite tough competition as it cuts costs. It has set a revenue target at 20.5 billion baht, up 6% year-on-year, with revenue per room to rise 4-5%, along with 4% growth in food business sales.
The government is considering a revamp of operating fees for the satellite industry so that the space economy will generate more benefits for the country. That could lead to higher operating costs for Thaicom Plc, the sole satellite service provider.
The industrial conglomerate B. Grimm Group plans to expand its power business capacity to 2,158 megawatts by 2019, from 1,627MW this year. It is preparing a budget of 18 billion baht for power generation under the small power producer (SPP) programme at Bo Win in Si Racha district of Chon Buri and at Amata City Industrial Estate in Rayong province.
Coming up this week: Japanese trade data and Thai auto sales for May will be released today.
Fed chief Janet Yellen will make her semi-annual presentation to the US Congress tomorrow and Wednesday.
The Bank of Thailand's Monetary Policy Committee meeting will meet on Wednesday. The IMF said recently that the MPC had room to cut its interest rate if it wanted to give a lift to the economy, but most analysts do not expect a move yet.
The Philippine central bank meets on Thursday.
The much-awaited EU referendum will take place on Thursday, with results expected to be available early Friday morning Thailand time.
Thailand's trade figures for May are due on Friday.
Stocks to watch: Tisco Securities says attractive stocks for June are AOT, BDMS, CK, GPSC, IRPC, KBANK, MTLS and SCB. It also recommends stocks to be added to the MSCI indices. Candidates for the mid-cap index are BEAUTY, IMPACT, PLAT, SPRC, TKN; and deleted are KTIS, THRE and CGD. Small-cap contenders are CPTGF, GVREIT, AMATAV, CGD, TPBI, LPH and CRANE.
Bualung Securities has buy recommendations for BJC, MINT, CK and STEC.
Technical view: SCB Securities sees support at 1,380 with resistance at 1,420. Bualuang Securities sees support at 1,360 and resistance at 1,450 points.