Thai exports to the US are expected to remain on course for growth in the year ahead despite fears of drastic changes to US trade policy after the surprise victory of Republican Donald Trump in the presidential race.
Commerce Minister Apiradi Tantraporn said yesterday the ministry is sticking to the forecast that Thailand's outbound shipments to the US market will grow by 3% next year.
The US is Thailand's third-largest trading partner, after China and Japan. Two-way trade with the US totalled US$37.9 billion in 2015, with exports to the US making up $24.1 billion or 11% of Thailand's total exports.
The government projected Thai exports to the US market would edge up by 1% this year from a year earlier to US$25 billion, led by strong sales of frozen shrimp and canned tuna.
"We have to closely monitor changes in the US's international trade policies, which are expected to materialise next year, and other risk factors such as the pace of the US economic recovery, oil prices and a possible rate hike by the US Federal Reserve," she said.
Mrs Apiradi said the Generalised System of Preferences (GSP) was also an issue for which there was no need for concern, as the US has just reinstated its GSP on Thai goods.
Last July the US agreed to reinstate its GSP on 3,400 Thai goods for another four years and five months, mainly ceramics, sanitary ware and processed foods.
Previously the GSP, which allows reduced tariffs on certain items, was not renewed when it expired on July 31, 2013.
The reinstatement means that Thai exporters are entitled to tax refunds for two years on 3,400 items worth 6.2 billion baht.
Nonetheless, the Thai trade minister has recommended that Thai exporters hedge against possible foreign exchange volatility in the short term.
Mrs Apiradi said that Thai commercial counsellors and trade ministers worldwide have also been ordered to closely monitor the administrative policies and international trade guidelines by new US trade representatives, as Mr Trump's campaign focused on internal economic reforms, protectionism and domestic investment promotion through tax incentives.
Mr Trump also hammered home his hardline stance on immigration, a commitment to mass deportations, a loosening of environmental protections and a potential reconsideration of current arrangements with allies.
"Those policies of US President-elect Trump may affect confidence in the US economy and bring about volatility in the short term, particularly to the capital and foreign exchange markets," she said.
Regarding trade, Mrs Apiradi says regardless of any changes to US trade policy, the Thai government will focus more on strategic partnerships rather than free trade agreements to boost trade and investment for the country.
Trade talks should focus largely on those areas where both sides can reach an agreement, leaving aside sensitive areas such as the agricultural sector, she said.