Donald Trump's victory in the presidential election is likely to provide room for Thai exploration, production and petrochemical firms to expand in the US and increase drilling activity, a new report says.
The expected rise in oil supply will add further pressure to keep global oil prices at relatively low levels, according to the SCB Economic Intelligence Centre (EIC).
At the same time, the conditions will pose risks for renewable energy and those who invest in the sector in the US.
The EIC report said Mr Trump's platform supports fossil fuels aimed at achieving energy independence for the US and he plans to deregulate environmental controls on the industry.
EIC expects Mr Trump's pro-oil stance to present opportunities for Thai exploration and production businesses as well as petrochemical firms to expand their investments in the US, although the regulatory environment for foreign investment is uncertain.
"The dimmer prospect for American renewable businesses will affect manufacturers and exporters of related parts such as solar panels to the US, compelling them to find new markets," EIC said.
Increased drilling activities in the US will add to the oil supply and should continue to put downward pressure on crude oil prices.
Mr Trump's plans to increase investment in oil businesses include opening up more federal lands for drilling in the Gulf of Mexico and the Arctic, both onshore and offshore.
The US currently has the world's largest untapped oil and natural gas resources, worth about US$50 trillion.
The president-elect has also promised energy tax reform, including permission for oil and gas businesses to use intangible drilling costs as a tax deduction.
These policies would induce more investment in oil exploration and production, cut costs for the industry and create about 500,000 jobs.
This makes it likely that the US will produce more crude oil and become a net oil exporter by 2023, five years earlier than previously expected.
"However, geopolitical uncertainty regarding Mr Trump's position on the Iran nuclear deal could drive oil prices up," the report said. "EIC expects 2017 oil prices to average around $52 per barrel."
Mr Trump's energy plan that supports drilling into vast US oil deposits offers a great chance for exploration and production firms to grow their businesses in the country.
Also, a hike in the oil and gas supply will benefit Thai petrochemical firms who plan to open plants in the US to gain feedstock and cost advantages.
"EIC recommends using mergers and acquisitions (M&A) with domestic firms to reduce risks regarding foreign direct investment laws that could become more restrictive given Mr Trump's protectionism and nationalism policy inclinations," the report said.
SET-listed PTT Exploration and Production Plc (PTTEP) also said it is in talks with some exploration and production companies on M&A deals. It did not reveal the names of the companies it is negotiating with.
In contrast, oil prices would soar if Mr Trump decides to scrap the Iran nuclear deal.
After the US, Britain, China, France, Germany and Russia lifted sanctions on Iran's oil industry in 2015, Iran, the third-largest oil producer in Opec, started ramping up crude production to regain its former pre-sanctions market share of 4 million barrels a day.
With the possibility that Mr Trump might reconsider the deal, EIC expects that Iran will further ramp up production and will not join Opec in cutting output to stabilise oil prices.
"If eventually Mr Trump decides to use the president's executive authority to reverse the deal, oil prices will shoot up in the short term due to geopolitical risks and the supply of about one million barrels of oil per day will be tightened since Iran will not be able to export to certain markets," the report said.
EIC expects the global oil price to remain low in the short term.
That continued trend would lend support to Thailand's petrochemical industry, refineries, air transport and logistics companies.
Thailand is a net oil importer and Thai households are expected to enjoy lower costs for oil imports and consumption, while local petrochemical plants using naphtha as feedstock would also gain a competitive advantage.
On the other hand, businesses related to renewables in the US are unlikely to have a bright outlook.