Recap: Asian markets fell early last week amid worries about Donald Trump's protectionist stance, uncertainty about France's political outlook, another crisis brewing in Greece and falling oil prices. However, sentiment picked up following Wall Street's climb to record highs after President Trump said he planned to overhaul business taxes. The Thai stock market see-sawed, with profit-taking keeping the SET Index in check while buying ahead of corporate earnings and dividend season limited the downside.
The SET index moved in a narrow range of 1,580.66 and 1,595.81 points and closed at 1,585.24, down 0.1% from the previous week, in brisk turnover averaging 55 billion baht a day. Institutional investors were net buyers of 7.03 billion baht and foreign investors bought 1.54 billion. Retail investors were net sellers of 6.97 billion baht and brokers sold 1.6 billion.
Big movers: Top gainer AMANAH surged 41.4% to close at 1.40 baht, while top loser PTL slid 16.6% to 15.10 baht. SGF led in volume, losing 15.6% to 0.38 baht. Leading in turnover were PTT, off 3.4% to 396 baht; AOT, down 2.6% to 40.50 baht; and ADVANC , adding 5.3% to 169 baht.
Newsmakers: China's foreign exchange reserves unexpectedly fell below $3 trillion in January for the first time in nearly six years, though tighter regulatory curbs appeared to be slowing capital outflows. While $3 trillion is not seen as a firm "line in the sand" for Beijing, concerns are swirling over the speed at which reserves are depleting and how much longer China can afford to defend the yuan.
Japan posted its second-biggest current account surplus on record in 2016. The surplus rose to a nine-year high of 20.65 trillion yen ($183.6 billion), up 25.8% from 2015.
Germany's trade surplus last year climbed to a record high of €252.9 billion ($270.05 billion). The German current account surplus, at $284.41 billion, was the world's largest.
Australia's central bank held interest rates steady at 1.5% in its first policy meeting of the year, playing down a recent soft patch in economic growth as a temporary hiccup that would not prevent a pickup to a healthy 3% pace.
Indonesia posted slower economic growth in the fourth quarter of 2016. The economy grew 4.9% on an annual basis in October-December, compared with 5% in the preceding quarter. GDP expanded by 5% for all of 2016, the first acceleration in growth in six years and up from 4.9% in 2015.
The Bank of Thailand's Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) maintained its benchmark rate at 1.5% as widely expected in light of a better-than-expected economic recovery, but greater uncertainties regarding US policies and volatile exchange rates need monitoring.
Commercial bank loans are expected to pick up this year as rising borrowing costs in the bond market and higher private investment spur loan demand, after lending growth in 2016 was the slowest in seven years, according to Bank of Thailand. Outstanding bank loans expanded 2% at end-2016, slowing from 4.3% in the previous year.
Plans by Taiwan-based CTBC Bank to buy a 35.6% stake in LH Financial Group (LHBANK), the holding company that controls LH Bank, remain on hold pending approval from the Taiwanese regulator. CTBC still aims to be a strategic partner, LH Bank president Sasitorn Phongsathorn said, adding that the deal could be called off if it is not completed by March.
Krungthai Bank (KTB) aims to set aside higher loan impairment charges this year to raise its coverage ratio to be on par with other large banks. Provisions will rise to 1.2 billion baht per month from 1 billion per month last year and 700 million in 2015.
Gunkul Engineering Plc has suspended its plan for a wind farm on Sor Por Kor land in Saraburi pending policy clarifications. The Supreme Administrative Court has ruled that renting Sor Por Kor land to build a wind farm in Chaiyaphum was a misuse of the land, which is designated for farming purposes. The Energy Regulatory Commission (ERC) has suspended approvals for power purchase agreements of 11 wind farms on Sor Por Kor land, mostly in Nakhon Ratchasima and Chaiyaphum. Energy and agricultural policymakers are scheduled to meet this week to discuss a solution.
The advertising industry expects a 10% recovery in ad spending this year due to an improving economy and increased budgets following the royal mourning period, says the Media Agency Association of Thailand (MAAT). Ad spending last year fell by 11% amid a slowing economy, weak consumption and national mourning following the passing of King Bhumibol Adulyadej on Oct 13.
Kasikornbank (KBank) said it would slow underwriting of non-rated bills of exchange (B/E) until market conditions return to normal and investor appetite for riskier assets improves.
Italian-Thai Development (ITD) says it is ready to restart construction of the long-delayed Dawei deep-sea port and special economic zone if the Thai and Myanmar governments approve continuation of the megaproject.
Investor confidence in the stock market over the next three months is improving for the first time in five months, thanks to 2016 earnings growth, said the Federation of Thai Capital Market Organizations (Fetco). The last survey in January had the confidence index at 102.99, while this month's reading rose to 120.59.
Coming up this week: The industrial product distributor SiamEast Solutions Plc (SE) will begin trading today on the MAI. Its IPO price was 2.45 baht. Also due are Japanese and euro zone fourth-quarter 2016 GDP data and Chinese inflation.
Eastern Technical Engineering Plc (ETE) will debut on the MAI tomorrow at the IPO price of 4.20 baht. US inflation for January and Taiwanese GDP will be released the same day.
The Indonesian central bank will meet Thursday, and US housing starts and building permits are also due.
Stocks to watch: KTB Securities recommends stocks that will gain from the economic recovery such as KTB, KBANK, ROBINS, BEAUTY and IVL.
Tisco Securities has buy recommendations for STEC, SEAFCO, TPIPL, JWD, BEAUTY, MALEE and TWPC. For short-term trading, it recommends KKP and BANPU.
Technical view: Bualuang Securities tips support at 1,575 with resistance at 1,620 points. KT Zmico Securities puts support at 1,550 and resistance at 1,606 points.