What a difference a year makes. In the same hot summer last year, Myanmar was the rosy-cheeked debutante of the democratic world after the National League for Democracy (NLD) won a landslide victory in the 2015 election, paving the way for the first civilian-led government in 54 years. Foreign investors were rushing in, lured by economic growth that hit 8.5% in 2014, an emerging market of more than 50 million consumers in a resource-rich land with seemingly endless potential.
At the same time, Thailand -- once a poster child for democracy in Asia -- had deteriorated into an Orwellian state, brought to us by a military government. (Some might argue that we brought the military on ourselves).
As a resident of a neighbouring country, I feel happy for Myanmar and wish its citizens well. I hope they can outdo us on their quest for democracy, and make a clean break from the military.I remember penning a commentary titled "Myanmar races ahead as we backpedal", praising the country and its people for their amazing achievement in making an exit from military rule in a bloodless election.
But the allure has fizzled out. The rosy-cheeked debutante is wilting. Economic growth has moderated to 7%, and foreign investors are complaining about red tape, a lack of enabling regulations to drive trade and investment, and shortcomings in infrastructure.
Aung San Suu Kyi, for years a symbol of hope, has been lambasted by the international media and activists for her frosty silence on human rights violations perpetrated by the military in Rakhine State. The issue of the Muslim Rohingya -- or "Bengalis" in the eyes of many Buddhists in the country -- is complex and one where I try to tread carefully.
Yet I almost fell off my chair while watching the recent BBC interview with the Nobel Peace laureate, when she rejected allegations that "ethnic cleansing" was taking place in Rakhine and said: "I think there is a lot of hostility there -- it is Muslims killing Muslims as well."
In any case, the second year of the NLD-led government is not shaping up as a happy one. Peace negotiations that Suu Kyi sees as her top priority have hit snags as ethnic groups grow more sceptical and less cooperative. Meanwhile, local activists and the media have complained of the NLD's remoteness and a tendency to censor freedom of expression. The Lady is perceived as ruling from an ivory tower.
Despite growing disillusionment, Suu Kyi still commands tremendous respect and popularity. Some pundits are even predicting that the NLD might try to revise the military-written constitution in order achieve more leeway to run the country.
The 2008 constitution was written to ensure that the military could retain an outsized role in civilian-led governance. It bars anyone with a foreign spouse (Suu Kyi in other words) from becoming head of state, which is why NLD lawmakers created the position of "state counsellor". One-quarter of the seats in parliament are filled with military-appointed representatives, and men in uniform still control the security-related ministries. The world is watching to see whether the NLD government can untie any of these knots.
As a citizen of a country that has just ushered in its 20th constitution, I can say that the road to democracy can take many turns. More freedom of expression and more public participation at every level might be easier said than done, but it is the only way to achieve real democracy.
Still, not all the news from Myanmar is bad. There are reports of new political parties such as one made up of stalwarts from the 88 Generation -- the activists who came of age fighting the junta in 1988 -- preparing to contest the 2020 election.
And perhaps the secretive and aloof Aung San Suu Kyi deserves credit for instilling a healthy attitude in her people. While populist leaders in this region promise the moon and try to make citizens depend on them, The Lady has sent a different message. "Our success, where I am as a leader, is decided by how dispensable I can make myself," she told an interviewer in Singapore last year.
Obviously, the world and 50 million people in Myanmar expect the moon from its 71-year-old leader and her government. But democracy in Myanmar is important, not just for its own people but for the health of democracy in this region. For Thailand especially, a more robust democracy in Myanmar might offer lessons or inspire us to seek ways to break free from the military.