China and India will account for 48% of all new mobile subscribers by the end of 2020, according to a new study by the Groupe Speciale Mobile Association (GSMA).
The latest edition of the GSMA report entitled "Mobile Economy: Asia Pacific" was published recently at the Mobile World Congress Shanghai. It forecasts India will account for 27% (206 million) and China 21% (155 million) of the approximately 753 million new mobile subscribers globally by the end of this decade.
The Asia-Pacific region as a whole is expected to see unique mobile subscribers advance from 2.7 billion at the end of last year to 3.1 billion in 2020, accounting for two-thirds of global growth.
The report also highlights how the region's mobile industry will be a growing contributor to Asia's economy and social development over this period -- and also play a pioneering role in the development of 5G mobile networks.
"Led by India and China, Asia's mobile industry will be the main engine of global subscriber growth for the remainder of the decade, connecting almost half a billion new customers across the region by 2020," said Mats Granryd, director-general of the GSMA.
He said GSMA is also seeing a dramatic shift to mobile broadband networks, particularly 4G, which is providing a platform for a range of innovative services across both developed and emerging markets in the region.
Meanwhile, advanced mobile operators in Asia are set to among the first in the world to launch commercial 5G networks before the end of the decade.
Asia leading move to 5G
According to GSMA Intelligence, the unit within the group that houses an extensive database of mobile operator statistics and industry reports, subscriber growth in the Asia-Pacific region will mean that mobile penetration in the region (as a percentage of the population) will grow from 66% in 2016 to 75% in 2020.
However, the region's diverse nature means that mobile penetration rates vary widely, as Asia is home to four of the five most penetrated markets in the world -- Hong Kong, Japan, Singapore and Taiwan -- but also some of the least penetrated, such as North Korea.
Mobile broadband (3G and above) is now the dominant technology in the region, accounting for more than half of all connections for the first time last year. The study notes that Asian markets such as China, Japan and South Korea are also driving the development of 5G mobile technologies.
5G connections are anticipated to reach 670 million in Asia-Pacific by 2025, accounting for just under 60% of global 5G connections by that point.
Mobile driving economic growth
Mobile technologies and services contributed US$1.3 trillion in economic value to the Asia-Pacific economy last year, equivalent to 5.2% of regional GDP.
This contribution is tipped to increase to $1.6 trillion (5.4% of regional GDP) in 2020 as countries benefit from improvements in productivity and efficiency brought about by the increased take-up of mobile services and the adoption of new mobile technologies such as machine-to-machine (M2M), where networked devices can communicate without human assistance.
Asia's mobile ecosystem also supported 16 million jobs in 2016, directly and indirectly, and made a substantial contribution to funding of the public sector. This ecosystem made an estimated tax contribution of around $166 billion last year to the public finances of the region's governments.
The report also highlights the major shift in consumer behaviour under way in the region, triggered by rising smartphone and mobile internet adoption, improved affordability and the increasing availability on locally relevant content.
"This has led to a boom in mobile services in areas such as video, social media, e-commerce and financial services. Mobile internet penetration in Asia-Pacific has doubled over the last five years, reaching approximately half of the regional population by the end of 2016," Mr Granryd said.
Employment impact
In 2016 mobile operators and this growing ecosystem provided direct employment to 6.4 million people in the region. The mobile sector also generates jobs in other sectors. Firms that provide goods and services as production inputs for the mobile ecosystem (for example, microchips and transport services) will employ more individuals as a result of the demand generated by the mobile sector.
Furthermore, the wages, public funding contributions and profits paid by the industry are spent in other sectors, which provide additional jobs.
The GSMA estimates that in 2016, around 9.7 million jobs were indirectly supported in this way, bringing the total impact of the mobile industry to around 16 million jobs.
Sustainable development
Asia's mobile industry is also playing a key role in tackling various social and economic challenges as outlined by the UN Sustainable Development Goals, according to Mr Granryd.
The report highlights several case studies where mobile services are helping to eliminate poverty; improve health, education, gender equality and employment opportunities; help to deliver safer cities; and address climate change and other issues.
"The mobile ecosystem in Asia is evolving rapidly, leading to the emergence of new services and applications that are transforming the way citizens live, work, play and communicate," said Mr Granryd.