Food shipments are unlikely to meet this year's target because the strong baht is putting more pressure on the industry's performance.
"The food industry by nature earns a thin margin at 3-5%," said Chatchai Boonyarat, vice-chairman of the Thai Chamber of Commerce. "Thai food exporters already hit by a wage hike are now finding it hard to survive in light of the continued baht appreciation."
The baht has gained about 6% so far this year, a relatively high rate compared with rises of 0.74% for the Chinese yuan, 0.69% for the Indian rupee and 0.1% for the Malaysian ringgit.
Early this year, the National Food Institute, the Federation of Thai Industries and the Thai Chamber of Commerce jointly forecast that food exports would grow by 6% this year to 1.03 trillion baht.
The forecast was based on a baht exchange rate of 29.50 to the US dollar, plus world economic growth of 3.5%.
"Now the situation has completely changed as the risk from foreign exchange is growing," said Pornsil Patcharintanakul, vice-chairman of the Thai Chamber of Commerce.
He said, however, that the bird flu outbreak in China is likely to benefit exports of Thai livestock.
Mr Chatchai said businesses would re-evaluate export figures and the impact of the baht's appreciation in May.
"The chamber had warned a couple of years ago that the baht would become stronger and potentially reach 28 to the dollar by the end of this year," he said.
"Exporters should adjust their businesses to lower costs and cut the number of employees while focusing more on efficiency enhancement."
Amid the private sector's concerns, the International Trade Promotion Department still maintains its forecast for food export growth of 10% this year.
Deputy director-general Suwipan Thisyamondol said the THAIFEX-World of Food Asia 2013 event from May 22-26 will boost exports.