Gold price sentiment index rebound seen as fleeting
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Gold price sentiment index rebound seen as fleeting

The gold price sentiment index for August has rebounded to above 50 points for the first time in three months, but analysts say the trend favours a decline through the end of the year.

Kamoltun Pornphaisarnvichit, chief analyst at the Gold Research Center, said the rebound is a short-term move after a three-month correction.

The index hit 53.35 for August against 33.77 in July, 32.91 in June and 45.50 in May.

The rebound indicates that investors are confident that gold prices will rise in the near term after a rough patch.

Of survey respondents, 30.9% want to buy gold due to low prices now, 34.3% are undecided and 34.8% are not buying.

In last month's survey, the number of respondents who preferred to buy was higher at 37%, but the not-buying group was also higher at 39.8% and the undecided were just 24.5%.

"It shows that investors have seen a clearer trend in gold and are more confident in making decisions," said Mr Kamoltun.

Phusit Wonglorsaichon, the centre director, said an average or accumulative buy on gold is not recommended, as the weakening trend is clear.

"We recommend no accumulation buy at the moment," he said. "SPDR, the largest gold fund, is a good indicator, as it is continuously selling gold."

The Singapore-based fund reported gold sales of over 10 tonnes in the past three days. The fund's gold outstanding has fallen from 1,700 tonnes in the past two years to 1,010 tonnes last month and 900 tonnes now.

Gold prices have been pressured by the US Federal Reserve's plan to scale down asset purchases, prompting investors to shift from gold and emerging markets into higher-yielding US treasury bonds.

Local investors are shifting from gold futures to SET50 futures for lower risk and higher returns.

"SET50 futures are making prominent profits, especially when the market is moving in a highly volatile range," said Mr Phusit.

Warawoot Benjaputtarug, president of GT Wealth Management, said his firm lost six digits in a month on gold futures as gold prices declined. GT has switched to aggressively investing in SET50 futures.

The Gold Research Center expects short-term gold prices to move in a range of US$1,150-1,326 an ounce.

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