Thailand's agricultural economy is expected expand only slightly this year due to dry weather and a fatal shrimp disease.
The Office of Agricultural Economics (OAE) slashed the farm economic forecast for 2013 to 1.1% from a previous projection of 3.5% to 4.5%.
But the agency is more upbeat about next year, expecting growth in a range of 3-4%, due to the improving shrimp sector.
Agriculture Minister Yukol Limlaemthong identified early mortality syndrome (EMS) as the main factor of a 7.2% contraction in the fisheries segment.
Detected in China three years ago, EMS hit shrimp farms in Vietnam and Malaysia a year later before finding its way into Thailand in last year's fourth quarter.
The disease halved shrimp production in Thailand to 300,000 tonnes and affected shrimp exports proportionately.
The crop sector, which covers field production such as rice, cassava, rubber, palm oil and fruit, is expected to rise by 3%, down from earlier estimate of 4-5%.
Severe drought that hit most plantations in the North and Northeast were also blamed for the slowdown.
Mr Yukol said the shift to using more farm machines to replace human labour has caused the farm service economy to slow down, with an expansion of 1.1% year-on-year.
OAE secretary-general Anan Lila is confident improvements in all farm sectors such as crops, livestock and fisheries will drive the farm economy to meet the 3-4% growth target next year. A favourable outlook for rice, maize, sugar cane and rubber will push crop growth next year to a range of 3.2% to 4.2% over last year.
Cooperation between the Fisheries Department and shrimpers in setting guidelines against EMS will notably return Thai shrimp farming to normal next year, said Mr Anan.
The measures _ regular pond clean-ups to raise hatcheries and careful imports of broodstock from abroad _ could help the fisheries sector to enjoy growth of 2.2% to 3.2% next year.
Meanwhile, the Thai Rice Exporters Association (TREA)said exports of the grain in the first 10 months of this year slipped 3.5% by volume and 6.9% in value year-on-year to 5.4 million tonnes and 110 billion baht, respectively.
But the TREA forecast high November exports of 550,000 to 650,000 tonnes thanks to more orders for premium-grade rice for consumption during the festive season.
In October, shipments improved strongly thanks to low prices for Thai grains, notably white and glutinous rice. High demand from the Middle East and South Africa raised the shipments of white rice by 35% to 317,565 tonnes and glutinous rice by 84% to 248,724 tonnes.
Benin, Iraq and South Africa were largest Thai rice importers during the first 10 months, at 790,448 tonnes, 703,746 and 330,408 tonnes, respectively.
Huge state rice stocks, the ongoing harvest season and a new rule that limits pledging amount pushed down export prices.
The latest report showed the price gap between Thai and Vietnamese grains will narrow to a range of $25-30 this week.
Vietnam's 5% grade white rice is sold at US$ 415-425 a tonne compared with $442 for Thai rice.