It has been more than 70 days since anti-government rallies started to crowd Bangkok, escalating to a shutdown peak on Monday. While opinions differ about whether the protests are a good idea, they have undoubtedly had a diverse effect on some businesses.
Consumer spending will shrink by 5-10 billion baht during the protests if they lasts for two weeks, said Thanavath Phonvichai, the vice-president for research at the University of the Thai Chamber of Commerce. The centre also projects the shutdown will see economic losses of 700 million to 1 billion baht a day.
But mass transit, telecoms, data-recovery centres, fast-food restaurants and home delivery services are examples of key gainers during this period, while tourism, airlines and the stock market have been negatively affected by the political stalemate.
Entrepreneurs have emerged too, selling mob-related clothing, accessories, souvenirs and the best-seller _ whistles.
Business reporters have summed up the varying fortunes of several sectors.
♦ Mobile operators
Mobile companies have enjoyed a windfall as people spend a tremendous amount of time on their phones during the protests. Two of the major operators _ Advanced Info Service and Total Access Communication _ have seen their mobile usage in the protest areas skyrocket by 400% compared with other areas. But the huge increase in mobile data traffic has not brought in as much revenue as expected since many customers signed up for unlimited data tariff packages.
♦ Data-recovery centres
Local demand for data centres and cloud-based services has grown sharply in tandem with growing political pressure. The market has seen a sharp increase of 30% over the past three months, as many companies prepared business continuity plans and set up remote work systems.
TCC Technology Plc and Internet Thailand, the two main data-centre service providers, project local data centres, cloud-based services, disaster recovery and business continuity services to grow by at least 40% this year thanks to increasing awareness about the need for business continuity planning to manage crises.
♦ Fast-food chains and restaurants
Fast-food chains and restaurants near protest sites as well as home delivery services have enjoyed brisk sales.
Some street food vendors have reported selling out within a few hours, so they will be sorry if and when the protests end. Pranee Wutthiyakorn, a 77-year-old food vendor, relocated her food stall to the protest area from Union Mall to tap the massive demand and is quite happy with the decision.
♦ Retail businesses
Retailers in shopping malls, supercentres and convenience stores near the protest sites have welcomed a crush of mostly protest shoppers. Retailers prepared much larger inventories to serve rising demand, while convenience stores are doing a keen business.
A clerk in one 7-Eleven store in Siam Square said he was extremely busy the first two days of the shutdown, with staff restocking shelves up to seven times a day, much more than usual.
♦ Mass transit
Bangkok's skytrain and subway have seen a huge increase in their ridership over the past 74 days since demonstrations started. Ridership has almost doubled on days the People's Democratic Reform Committee called for rallies.
Skytrain ridership jumped 10% to 650,000 on working days and 400,000 on weekends in 2013, with the trend projected to continue this year. The subway accommodated 250,000 commuters on weekdays and 170,000 on weekends in 2013 but recorded an increase of more than 20% during the rallies.
♦ Motorcycle taxi drivers
Motorcycle taxis are one of the most popular modes of transport around protest sites, as they can somewhat avoid traffic congestion. With brisk demand, many motorcycle taxi drivers said their daily income has risen several times.
Ο Stock market
No economists can predict the exact economic impact from the protest, but the SET index can act as a barometer of investor confidence. The main index has lost 135.25 points or 9.45% during the protests, closing at 1,295.87 points yesterday.
The SET's market capitalisation last Oct 31 amounted to 12.3 trillion baht compared with 11.5 trillion baht yesterday.
Ο Banks
Even though banks' operations appear resilient, with customers using mobiles or internet banking during the protests, the debt-servicing ability of SME borrowers has weakened.
Sayam Prasitsirikul, the head of SME banking at Bank of Ayudhya, said late payments and higher non-performing SME loans have been gaining recently, taking a particular toll on businesses with annual sales of less than 100 million baht.
Credit card use has also been affected, with Kasikornbank executive vice-president Chatchai Payuhanaveechai reporting KBank's credit card bills were 10-20% below target last month.
Ο Tourism
The tourism industry is highly sensitive to political instability. Since the demonstrations took to the streets, hotel and tour reservations have seen heavy cancellations by foreign tourists, mainly in Bangkok. Many meetings, seminars and exhibitions have also been cancelled.
So far, 45 countries and territories have issued travel advisories to suggest their citizens avoid the protest sites in Bangkok. But major tourist areas such as Phuket, Pattaya, Chiang Mai and Koh Samui are still doing well, some even thriving.
Ο Airlines
The lingering civil unrest bodes ill for some 100 airlines operating in and through Thailand as many brace for a downturn, although present fallout seems limited.
The aviation sector contributes 139 billion baht to Thai GDP or 1.5% of the total, through flights, airports, ground services, their supply chains and the spending of those employed in the sector and the supply chains, reported a 2011 study by Oxford Economics, a global forecasting and research consultancy, based on 2009 data. Taking into account aviation's support for tourism, the overall contribution rises to 818 billion baht or 9% of GDP.
Ο Expressways
Traffic on the capital's Expressways has dropped slightly as people avoid traffic jams by leaving their cars at home to take mass transit. Expressway operators reported growth of 2% during the first 10 months of 2013, but traffic has dipped by almost 2% since November when the protests began.
Ο Billboard advertisers
Government agencies and private firms are still taking a wait-and-see approach before spending on advertising during the political turmoil. Some ad campaigns have been suspended until the tension subsides.
Aqua Corporation, an out-of-home media provider, said its business has fallen by 30% since early November.
Ο Automobiles
Domestic car sales have been hit by the political stand-off, as escalating political risk erodes consumer sentiment, prompting potential buyers to delay their purchase.
Kyoichi Tanada, vice-president of the Japanese Chamber of Commerce, said the impact started in November, when purchase orders at the 12-day Thailand International Motor Expo stood at 41,083 cars, missing the target of 50,000.
Ο Contractors
Purchasing power in the housing market remains strong, but the protests have somewhat spoiled consumer confidence.
Vittakarn Chandavimol, chief marketing officer at the SET-listed developer AP (Thailand), said new project launches remain on target, but the company will revise its marketing plan, activities, events and media spending.
Issara Boonyoung, managing director of the property developer Kanda Property Co, with projects on Rama II and Pracha Uthit roads and in the Lam Luk Ka area, said projects in central Bangkok will likely be affected by a shortage of construction materials.
Many new, small businesses have sprung up during the demonstrations including vendors of T-shirts, national flags and ribbons, and accessories and souvenirs such as wristbands, hairbands, earrings, key chains, umbrellas and stickers. The bestseller is undoubtedly whistles. During the first day of the shutdown, souvenirs at the seven protest areas were sold out within hours.
Dara, 37, usually sells women's accessories at a flea market but now sells new T-shirt designs and hair accessories with national flag screens and symbols.
''I've made money while enjoying the protests too,'' she said.
