A major trade group expects Thai exports to grow by less than 1% this year as the sector navigates risks from the still-fragile global economy, disease outbreaks and escalating cyberattacks.
Containers sit bound for sea at Laem Chabang port in Chon Buri province. The Thai National Shippers’ Council expects export growth of less than 1% this year. Patipat Janthong
Nopporn Thepsithar, president of the Thai National Shippers' Council, said despite several economic agencies including the Commerce Ministry predicting an export recovery in the second half, the TNSC had cut its growth forecast to less than 1% from an earlier 1.6%.
"It's now become clearer that myriad risk factors are cordoning off Thai exports, as we've seen the world's economy has yet to fully recover as expected, global trade is affected by international conflicts, and the Ebola virus outbreak has disrupted travel for international business talks," he said.
More importantly, farm prices keep falling and concerns about IT security are escalating after reports of cyberattacks against US banks.
The US Federal Bureau of Investigation and the US Secret Service recently announced an inquiry into cyberattacks against several financial firms including JPMorgan, the largest US bank by assets.
Mr Nopporn said financial firms and giant corporations worried about such attacks disrupting international trade, fearing that money transfers from buyers would disappear.
He urged the new government to help expand the available markets for Thai exports and kick-start trade talks with several countries.
Infrastructure investment is also a must for improving the country's logistics and transport.
"We hope the new government, which includes both private-sector and military representatives, will come up with prudent strategies for the trade war," Mr Nopporn said.
Thailand's exports unexpectedly slipped 0.85% year-on-year in July to US$18.9 billion on a decline in shipments of gold and oil, driven by falling gold demand globally and cooling Chinese demand for petroleum.
In the first seven months, exports edged down 0.42% from a year earlier to $132 billion.
But in local-currency terms, July shipments rose by 4.2% year-on-year to 609 billion baht, with the seven-month figure totalling 4.24 trillion, up by 8.4%.
In related news, Thailand in the first seven months exported 5.62 million tonnes of rice, up by 55% from the year-earlier period, fetching 90.9 billion baht, up by 20.6%.
Benin ranked as the top importer of Thai rice with the purchase of 689,329 tonnes, up 55.7% year-on-year, followed by China's 338,170 tonnes (up 227%), Ivory Coast's 325,558 tonnes (up 68.2%), Nigeria's 321,955 tonnes (up 467%) and Cameroon's 281,905 tonnes (up 190%).
The Thai Rice Exporters Association (TREA) said July's shipments marked the highest of the year at 940,691 tonnes, up by nearly 40% year-on-year, thanks to strong demand for white rice in African countries that usually imported parboiled rice from Thailand.
The TREA expects August exports to remain high at 900,000 tonnes, driven by Thai rice prices' competitiveness in the global market.