The government is banking on exports to help boost the struggling economy.
Should exports manage to expand by just 1%, economic growth will come in at more than 3% this year, says the Fiscal Policy Office (FPO).
Krisada: Second half the crucial period
The Finance Ministry's think tank is keeping an eye on whether shipments could reach its 1.4% target this year after exports in the first three months are expected to contract by 4% year-on-year, director-general Krisada Chinavicharana said, adding that he was pinning his hopes on exports picking up in the second half.
The bleak export prospects for this year, triggered by the uneven global economic rebound and China's slowdown, are adding to worries that GDP could grow by less than 3%.
Exports are the country's main pillar, accounting for 70% of GDP.
A recent wave of cuts in export growth forecasts has painted a gloomier economic picture, as other engines including private investment and domestic consumption remain lukewarm.
The Bank of Thailand last month trimmed its export growth projection to 0.8% from 1%, while the Thai National Shippers' Council slashed its 2015 export forecast to flat growth from an earlier projection of 1.5% due largely to the slower-than-expected global recovery and falling oil and farm prices.
Mr Krisada said several economic indicators, particularly tourism, were gaining traction, and this could help to offset weak exports.
The number of tourist arrivals in the three months through March surged 23% year-on-year, and factory output in the first two months bounced back to expand by 1.4% year-on-year after more than a year of decline.
Value-added tax (VAT) on goods and services, a proxy for domestic consumption, edged up 1.9% for the first six months of fiscal 2015, Mr Krisada said.
Even though VAT on imported products fell by 14% year-on-year in the October-March period, the tax imposed on imported consumer goods such as electrical appliances, shoes and garments increased 13.7%.
The low oil price caused VAT on imported goods to shrink 14% in the first half of fiscal 2015.
VAT on imported oil fell 20 billion baht short of the target.
Capital goods imports excluding one-time imports of trains and aeroplanes rose 2.3% year-on-year in the first two months and commercial loans 2.7%.
For budget disbursement through March, 1.32 trillion baht was taken out, representing 51.4% of total expenditure.
Of the 1.32 trillion baht, 1.18 trillion baht was regular expenditure and 140 billion was for investment.
The Finance Ministry estimates 80% of the investment budget will be drawn down this fiscal year. For the first fiscal half, 31% of the 449-billion-baht investment budget was disbursed.