The Commerce Ministry has finally succumbed to the truth, deeply cutting its export forecast to a 3% contraction this year from 1.2% growth, in line with other agencies.
Somkiat Triratpan, director of the ministry's Office of Trade Policy and Strategy, yesterday said Thai export value would sink to an estimated US$221 billion this year, dampened by the slower-than-expected global recovery and falling oil and farm prices.
In April, the Commerce Ministry slashed its full-year export forecast to 1.2% growth from 4% seen earlier. Export value totalled $228 billion last year.
A bleak outlook for the global economy and a spate of negative factors at home have prompted several forecasting units to cut their export projections.
The Thai National Shippers' Council, which represents more than 3,000 exporters, trimmed its forecast to a 4.2% contraction from a 2% decline, while the Fiscal Policy Office slashed its forecast to a 4% contraction from 0.2% growth.
The Bank of Thailand in June cut its export forecast to a 1.5% contraction from 0.8% growth.
Mr Somkiat said the Commerce Ministry's new forecast was based on the assumption that Dubai crude oil prices would average $60 a barrel, the baht would hover near 35 to the US dollar, and farm prices would recover.
The new forecast also excludes risk factors arising from illegal, unreported and unregulated fishing claims by the EU and the impact of Tier 3 status in the US's Trafficking in Persons report.
"Despite the contraction, Thailand is fortunate to have maintained market share in major territories such as the US, China, Japan, India, Australia and Taiwan," Mr Somkiat said.
"The export fall stems largely from falling prices, with volume unchanged and even growing in certain markets."
He insisted Thailand was not alone, with Singapore predicting exports would fall by 13% this year, and Malaysia looking at a 12% drop.
Deputy Commerce Minister Apiradi Tantraporn said Thailand could no longer count on double-digit export growth as in the past, as the base figure has become quite large.
Bank of Thailand spokesman Chirathep Senivongs Na Ayudhya said the central bank would announce its revised export forecast on Sept 25.
The central bank's revised forecast will be shaped by the slower-than-expected global recovery, with particular attention to how China's slowdown has a direct impact on Thai shipments and indirect effects on other Asean economies, he said.
Falling commodity prices could also induce an economic slowdown in Australia and other exporting countries in Asean and the Middle East, Mr Chirathep added.
