Rice prices are forecast to increase by as much as 10% late this year and early next year thanks to year-end festive celebrations and lower supply.
Chookiat Ophaswongse, an honorary president of the Thai Rice Exporters Association, said rice prices were likely to rise by 8-10% in December and January, the period that sees most active shipments induced by high demand for Christmas and New Year celebrations.
Nigeria, for instance, will start actively buying parboiled rice from November.
More importantly, he said, Thailand would come up with lower rice production in the main crop of 23 million tonnes from an earlier forecast of 27-28 million tonnes of paddy due to drought.
"Thai 5% white rice now quoted at US$355-$360 a tonne is considered low and has possibly reached its bottom," Mr Chookiat said, citing the baht's fall against the US dollar as another factor behind low rice prices.
He said rice traders mostly agreed that price prospects from now on will become positive, as indicated by the rice purchase by the Philippines this month.
The Philippines' National Food Authority will buy 750,000 tonnes of 25% broken rice under government-to-government deals at cost, insurance and freight prices of $426.6 baht a tonne.
Of the total, Thailand through the Foreign Trade Department will supply 300,000 tonnes, while Vietnam will provide 450,000 tonnes. Delivery is due from November until January.
Mr Chookiat said purchase demand of about 500,000 tonnes from Indonesia was expected late this year even though Indonesia has adopted a rice self-sufficiency policy.
He said Indonesia was still failing to produce enough rice for domestic consumption.
Mr Chookiat forecast Thailand could ship about 9 million tonnes of rice this year but said it was difficult to predict whether the country would reclaim its title as the world's largest rice exporter.
Thailand lost its No.1 rice exporter status to India in 2012, while Vietnam rose to second place.
Despite a late surge by Thailand, India held onto the title last year, selling 11.3 million tonnes compared with 10.8 million tonnes for Thailand.
"We still have to wait for the performance of India's rice shipments for the remaining months," Mr Chookiat said.
As of Aug 17, Thailand had shipped 6 million tonnes of rice, while India had 5.7 million tonnes. According to Mr Chookiat, Vietnam is expected to ship only 6.1-6.2 million tonnes this year.