The government is being urged by some to join the Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP), which was signed by 12 Pacific Rim countries last Monday.
But it also needs to study and appraise thoroughly the impact and how to remedy areas where Thailand loses, according to the Thailand Development Research Institute (TDRI).
"We think Thailand should join the new trade pact," Duanden Nikomboriraks, the TDRI's research director, said at a seminar on the impact of TPP. "But prior to participation, the government must study deeply and clearly the impact to ensure that Thailand will be less harmed."
Ms Duanden urged responsible authorities to conduct an in-depth study of potential losses from the pact, adding that information available from the study should be empirical.
The researcher lauded the TPP's dedication to market access and good governance principles -- issues that Thailand seems to ignore.
According to Ms Duanden, the pact will trigger a new supply chain climate in which global production in certain industries such as automotive and parts will relocate to TPP members to enjoy rule of origin.
"Thailand's falling exports are not only from soft global demand, but also hidden structural problems," she said. "The absence of TPP membership will curtail Thailand's competitiveness, as the FTAs Thailand has currently signed offer a relatively small market."
According to Ms Duanden, Thailand's exports have continuously and rapidly fallen, putting the country's structural problems in stark relief.
Thai shipments are forecast to contract for a third straight year in 2015, down by about 5%, after falling 0.3% in 2013 and 0.4% in 2014.
The Commerce Ministry last month said exports plunged for an eighth straight month in August, down 6.69% year-on-year, to a value of US$17.7 billion.
That performance was the second worst this year after a 7.87% year-on-year decline in June, which was the biggest drop since an 8.15% fall in December 2011.
Shipments of agricultural and agribusiness products fell by 8% year-on-year to $2.73 billion in August, while industrial goods exports slipped by 3.2% to $13.9 billion.
For the first eight months of 2015, exports amounted to $143 billion, down by 4.92% year-on-year.
Shipments of agricultural and agribusiness products during the period dropped by 6.5% year-on-year to $221 billion, while those of industrial goods fell by 3.2% to $112 billion.
According to the TDRI, the positive impact to TPP members is expected to accrue mostly to automobiles and parts, textiles and garments, agricultural products, and services -- sectors that will enjoy lower tariffs and more foreign direct investment.
Nopporn Thepsithar, chairman of the Thai National Shippers' Council, said 2016 purchase orders were expected to shift towards TPP members, which produce similar raw materials and products as Thailand.
In the longer term, a negative impact is anticipated to overall trade and investment, as the pact calls for more technology transfer and support among TPP members, he said.
"We, the private sector, want the government to declare its intention of joining the pact, at least to convince customers not to shift their purchases to countries that are TPP members," Mr Nopporn said.
Kannikar Kijtiwatchakul, FTA Watch Coordinator, said the current government is an interim one and should not state Thailand's official stance on TPP.
Ms Kannikar urged the government to carefully study the pros and cons of joining the TPP, particularly the issues of pharmaceuticals and investment protection.