Rice exports are expected to have another difficult year as the world market is likely to be volatile amid foreign exchange and oil price risks, according to exporters.
Charoen Laothammatas, president of the Thai Rice Exporters Association, said the association projected shipments would slip to 9 million tonnes this year worth about US$4.3 billion.
Last year Thailand exported 9.79 million tonnes, down 10.8% from 10.97 million tonnes in 2014.
Export value also dropped by 15.2% to $4.61 billion from $5.43 billion.
Thailand shipped 1.2 million tonnes of in December, a fall of 17.5% from the same month last year. Export value dropped 22.5% to $536 million.
Thailand was the second-largest rice exporter last year. India led the way with 10.2 million tonnes, down 5.3%, while Vietnam was third after shipping 6.61 million tonnes, up 2.4%.
"This year will be another year of much uncertainty, not only because of low oil prices that affect the purchasing power of our clients in the Middle East and Africa but also because of volatile foreign exchange and drought conditions that are expected to trim milled rice production by 4-5 million tonnes," Mr Charoen said.
He said the global rice market was expected to see stiffer competition thanks to widespread drought.
"We believe Thai rice prices have bottomed out and should pick up after now being quoted at only $360-$365 a tonne, the lowest in 10 years," Mr Charoen said.
Thai rice prices averaged $471 per tonne last year.
Chookiat Ophaswongse, an honorary president of the association, said white rice was expected to account for 4.9 million tonnes of this year's exports, down from 5.26 million in 2015.
Vietnam, which will be less affected by drought because its rice fields are along river basins, will export more white rice.
Drought conditions will also trim Thailand's opportunity to ship new grains.
Shipments of Thai Hom Mali fragrant rice are expected to fall to 1.8 million tonnes this year from 1.99 million in 2015 because demand for premium rice in the world market is expected to fall given the global economic slowdown.
Mr Chookiat said parboiled rice shipments were also expected to fall to 2.2 million tonnes this year from 2.32 million last year because the economies of African countries remained in poor condition, while more African consumers were buying cheaper parboiled rice from India.
Vichai Sriprasert, another honorary president, said rice exporters were worried about the impact of falling oil prices on the African market, particularly Nigeria.
Nigeria normally buys about 3 million tonnes of Thai rice, but last year it imported only 644,000 tonnes.