Thailand's communications market is predicted to reach 1 trillion baht in value over the next six years, thanks to the popularity of over-the-top (OTT) services and growth in digital transformation.
This year the communications market in Thailand is forecast to increase by 9.5%. The growth is driven by digital transformation, a surge in mobile data consumption, and the Eastern Economic Corridor (EEC), according to a survey conducted during February to April 2017, by the National Broadcasting and Telecommunications Commission in collaboration with National Science and Technology Development Agency.
"The communications market in Thailand will keep rising over the next few years due to the growth of digital transformation," said Supachai Sachaphibukij, secretary and adviser of the survey.
Corporations and new startups have been investing in digital technologies such as big data, Internet of Things, clouds, artificial intelligence, and cybersecurity.
The government's EEC megaproject has stimulated investment in the public and private sectors, including submarine cables and broadband connections for villages.
Thais also consume more mobile data, particularly OTT services, and social media.
According to the study, the 9.5% growth in the communications market, covering communications equipment and communications services, is valued at 632 billion baht.
The share of communication services was larger than equipment in both years, at 57.3% and 58.7% in 2016 and 2017, respectively.
This year the communications equipment market (core network wireless and wired equipment, smartphone, fixed telephone and cabling) is expected to decline as mobile operators have already rolled out 4G technology in 2016 and as digital disruption impacts retail and banking.
The smartphone market this year is expected to increase by 7.8%, accounting for 118 billion baht, compared with 110 billion baht last year.
"The replacement market is greater for high-end smartphones as their life cycle is 18 months -- faster than middle-to-entry handsets," Mr Supachai said.
Revenue from communications services continues to grow this year, jumping to 371 billion baht from 330 billion baht last year. The growth of 12.2% has been driven by non-voice services.
This year, the value of mobile voice services is expected to be 86 billion baht, with negative growth of 10.3%; conversely, mobile non-voice service is expected to rise by 35.2% to 196 billion baht.
Higher usage of mobile data due to the popularity of OTT services and social media are key factors in non-voice service expansion.
Growth in non-voice services is being encouraged by a greater variety of digital content and services offered by mobile operators, more affordable prices, and SIM cards introduced for special target users, such as for overseas usage.
The study found that revenue of fixed-line services has grown by 10 billion baht, or 14.5% over last year.
Internet services are estimated to grow only 3.5% this year, with a value of 57 billion baht.
Mr Supachai said households and small home offices are still major spenders in communications and account for 56.8% of the total market.
However, economic instability and delayed government budgets are negative factors for the communications market.
Mr Supachai said the communications market is estimated to reach 1 trillion baht in value over the next six years. OTT and the digital transformation are key factors boosting the market to reach double-digit growth.
Mobile service revenue will reach 400 billion baht in 2022 as mobile operators shift their price strategy to focus on digital lifestyle and content services.