Last week's bomb and arson attacks will take their toll on the economy, with revenue from tourism falling up to 6 billion baht and consumer spending dropping almost as much, the University of the Thai Chamber of Commerce predicted on Thursday.
Its Centre for Economic and Business Forecasting said the violence would slash about 365,000 tourist arrivals off the government's target of 33.2 million this year
Southern provinces banking on the tourism sector alone could see almost 125,000 fewer visitors as a consequence of the attacks, it added.
About one-third of visitors to Thailand choose southern provinces as their destination.
Tourism revenue could drop by 6 billion baht as fewer tourists visit Thailand, the centre warned.
Declining consumer confidence could also mean spending would drop by 4.5 billion baht over the next two months.
"The southern bombings will affect 0.1-0.2% of the Thai GDP if there are no more bombs," the centre said.
Its forecast echoed one by the Tourism Authority of Thailand, which anticipated the country will lose up to 200,000 tourists, with tourism revenue down between 5 and 10 billion baht.
According to the National Economic and Social Development Board, economic growth this year will be in the range of 3-3.5%. Tourism accounts for about 10% of GDP.
The violence last week targeted Hun Hin and six southern provinces of Krabi, Nakhon Si Thammarat, Phangnga, Phuket, Surat Thani and Trang, killing four people and injuring 35 others.
Authorities have detained at least 15 suspects who could face charges of operating a criminal association and offences relating to public space.
