Thailand's economy is expected to grow 2.7% in 2024, the Ministry of Finance said on Friday, up from a previous forecast of 2.4% due to higher foreign tourist arrivals and exports.
"We see positive signs from exports due to improving economic growth from trading partners," Deputy Finance Minister Paopoom Rojanasakul said, adding the growth could hit 3% this year on due to policies still to be implemented.
"It's a good number, but we have to do better."
“We see positive signs from exports due to improving economic growth from trading partners,” Deputy Finance Minister Paopoom Rojanasakul said, adding that growth could hit 3% if policies still to be fully implemented are successful.
“It’s a good number, but we have to do better.”
For example, more effort is required to further reduce income inequality, he said.
The growth forecast did not factor in the 450-billion-baht digital wallet cash handout scheduled to be rolled out in the fourth quarter, Mr Paopoom said, adding that it could contribute 1.2 to 1.8 percentage points to growth.
The dollar value of Thai exports is seen as rising 2.7%, stronger than an earlier forecast of 2.4%.
Tourism is a key driver of Southeast Asia’s second-largest economy, and the ministry now expects 36 million foreign arrivals, who are expected to stay longer and spend an estimated 1.69 trillion baht, an increase of 37.4% from last year, said Mr Paopoom.
Deputy Finance Minister Paopoom Rojanasakul says growth could reach 3% if policies still to be implemented are successful. (Photo: Chanat Katanyu)
The previous forecast called for 35.7 million foreign arrivals in 2024 with projected spending of 1.59 trillion baht.
Between Jan 1 and July 25, 19.6 million foreign tourists entered Thailand, generating 925 billion baht in revenue.
Per capita spending of tourists is expected to reach 47,000 baht per person per trip, up from the previous estimate of 44,600 baht. This is partly due to the number of visa-free countries/territories increasing to 93 and the higher proportion of tourists from countries with high per capita spending.
Private consumption is expected to grow by 4.5%, easily exceeding the estimate of 3.5%, partly due to an 8% increase in farmers’ income and a 3.6% increase in real value-added tax, indicating higher spending and circulation of money in the economy. This is partly due to the government’s ongoing fiscal and credit measures, said Mr Paopoom.
Headline inflation is expected to average 0.6% this year, with the services balance surplus increasing due to the rise in foreign tourists. The current account is expected to have a surplus of $11 billion, or 2.4% of GDP.
The economy expanded 1.9% last year, slower than expected and less than the 2.5% growth seen in 2022.
The ministry foresees the baht trading at an average of 36.20 to the US dollar, slightly weaker than the 36 baht level seen in April, due to capital outflows in the first half of the year.
Pornchai Thiraveja, director-general of the Fiscal Policy Office under the Finance Ministry, said many international agencies have also revised their forecasts for Thai economic growth upward, particularly the IMF which recently revised its forecast up to 2.9% from its estimate of 2.7% made in April.
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