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2011 Mid-Year Economic Review

‘You won’t cry until you see the coffin’’ is a popular local saying that ruefully sums up local attitudes to preparing for the worst. But more than a few tears have been shed lately in response to shocks that appear to be taking place more frequently in our risk- filled world.

Natural disasters such as the tragedy that struck Japan in March have a way of focusing people’s attention on how well-prepared they are to anticipate risk and to manage recovery should the unthinkable occur. The report card is mixed for Thailand, where laws, rules, regulations and systems abound to deal with disaster, but enforcement, implementation and compliance are less predictable.

Compared with earthquakes or tsunamis, shocks to the economy should be easier to predict and manage. High energy prices, for example, are a serious threat to the global economic recovery but many governments, Thailand’s included, apparently prefer quick fixes to long-term plans that focus more on conservation and efficiency.

Of course, governments can’t do everything, and it’s up to all of us to take stock of our strengths and weaknesses. In Thailand, the checklist needs to include some serious questions about political risk as well. As the country prepares to go to the polls, all sides would do well to commit to accepting whatever result the people deliver. Failure to do so could lead to yet another disaster, and one that could have been prevented.

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