Baht too strong - urgently needs freedom to float

Re: Baht too strong - urgently needs freedom to float

Postby Ian on Tue Mar 17, 2009 10:31 pm

sabironlineus wrote:The Thai currency is likely to become weaker against the US dollar and could fall by as much as 5.6% by the end of 2009. A currency expert forecast the Thai Baht, which as of February 4 traded at 34.95 per dollar, will slide to 36 by the end of June, and 37 by the end of the year. The year 2008 saw the Thai currency plummet 15%, securing a third-worst spot amongst Asia's 10 most active currencies against the US dollar. Despite the Thai government's plan to spend billions of baht to spur growth, the political instability, which culminated in the closure of Bangkok's two international airports late last year, sent business sentiment to a record low. Thailand's current account will likely be in a deficit this year as overseas investment slows down, exports dry up, and the government's spending climbs through the roof.


If I can add that British economic confidence today was at an 18 month high. Confidence is the first step towards recovery, it gets people spending again. Conversely Thai confidence seems to be steadily falling, even abhisit is having to predict a gloomy future.

Villager, I am in similar dire straits, I struggle away with my three pensions, rents on properties and reduced income from my investments. I am even trying to cut down on my cigars, 3000 baht per week is perhaps excessive in these frugal times. :lol:
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Re: Baht too strong - urgently needs freedom to float

Postby DKO on Sat Mar 28, 2009 10:44 am

Maybe so Ian,

But the GBP after an increase to 1.47 to the US $ 3 days ago continues its fall again 1.43 to the US $ dollar. Baht essentially mirrors the US $ ups and downs as you and other have previously said.

These big daily fluctuations are driving me mad. It take me 3 ATM withdrawals to get my monthly pension out and by the time I get to day two the GBP has dropped again by 300- 400 Baht (what a waste).

I've noticed another fluctuation. If you look at the markets when Asia is trading and partly into European trading the GBP (but not always) to be stronger. The US trading day starts and it invariably weakens and often quite a bit.

I cannot help thinking there is serious manipulation and betting going on by over weakening the GBP. but I am no expert on these things or what or why the fluctuations.
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Re: Baht too strong - urgently needs freedom to float

Postby Ian on Sat Mar 28, 2009 1:43 pm

Dave if you look here http://www.tititudorancea.com/z/gbp_to_ ... i_baht.htm

At the 30 day chart, you will see that the Pound seems stable around the 50 mark, plus or minus 1 Baht.
I agree one can see clear correlations between the dollar fluctuations and also stock market activity.
The Baht boat has not yet hit the rocks, the future is not clear. Hang in there friend.
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Re: Baht too strong - urgently needs freedom to float

Postby DKO on Sat Mar 28, 2009 4:12 pm

Ian wrote:Dave if you look here http://www.tititudorancea.com/z/gbp_to_ ... i_baht.htm

At the 30 day chart, you will see that the Pound seems stable around the 50 mark, plus or minus 1 Baht.
I agree one can see clear correlations between the dollar fluctuations and also stock market activity.
The Baht boat has not yet hit the rocks, the future is not clear. Hang in there friend.


It may look small Ian but the range is actually 4.6% and is up and down daily (or nearly daily). Even only 16 months ago you would not get movement like this in weeks or months.

Lets put that 4.6% into perspective. When I draw my pension via ATM of 900 GBP. (no charges until 1st June when I get hit for a 1% Visa Exchange rate conversion charge but no commission charges still :D )

If I get my money at 49.3984 Baht to 1 GBP I would get 44,459 Baht
At 51.94656 to 1 GBP I would get 46,752 Baht. A difference of 2,293 Baht

I feel a 30 day difference of budget of 2,293 Baht where it is worth 3 times or so more in buying power in Thailand compared to the UK is significant.

Of course the added problem is that I cannot get my money out by ATM in one day, and over the next two days it often moves down in this range costing me some 1,600 baht on average purely coz of My Bank's ATM limits of 300 GBP per day (similar to many UK banks limits). VERY FRUSTRATING trying to guess/hold out for three good ER days and not always possible if I get a big bill that has to be met..

Even then it is impossible to work out exactly what rate the ATM will apply at any one time of the day.
I have tried following the pattern of Bangkok Bank T/T rates (seems closest) for when changes are applied to ATM withdrawals but its all over the place (except weekend where I have found what it is Sat morning is the same Sun morning and before 8am Monday morning. All I need is a great rate at the end of Friday then I can get all my month's pension out on that rate over the next 3 days.

Am Hanging in my friend :D by the finger nails when Visa renewal time comes if things do not improve.

More bad news I see the UK RPI for Feb '08 to Feb'09 is ZERO so NO increase to my Pension this year :cry: :cry:


Dave
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Re: Baht too strong - urgently needs freedom to float

Postby Ian on Sun Mar 29, 2009 3:37 pm

Dave, with these hourly fluctuations in the exchange rate, plus not knowing at what moment in time an ATM withdrawal hits the bank, it has become a game of roulette, I just draw money and hope for the best. When I check my accpount online I do not even look at the exchange rate in case it makes me angry :lol:
Talking of online banking I have discovered something interesting. My original deposit account was called "Reward Reserve", this had a garanteed fixed interest rate. Now for several years the manager has been telling me this is a poor rate and I should transfer to one of their new schemes. But I was too lazy to fill in the forms. Now all these new schemes have dropped to almost zero interest, but not my Reward Reserve, it was a contract between the bank and me. :lol:

Scy, I would be unhappy to see the GBP join the Euro at parity, but I don't think this will happen. When East Germany reunited with West, the Mark shouldered a heavy debt and suffered because of it. At the moment I do not think the Euro has fully factored in the collapse of the Eastern European countries.

The Baht is currently blatantly being manipulated, I think in a cynical manner. My feelings are that there are a few very rich people in Thailand who have more power than the BOT. I suspect that they are ordering the BOT not to devalue the Baht as this will devalue their wealth. The fact that the workforce suffer as a result I do not think bothers them. I think their dilemma is they cannot find a safe currency to move their funds to so stick with the Baht which they control.
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Re: Baht too strong - urgently needs freedom to float

Postby DKO on Sun Mar 29, 2009 4:22 pm

I think the GBP will hold out for years to come. It is not as if the US$, and Euro are the only currencies. MOST of the World including big payers are outside these two currencies. Look at some of the EU countries such Ireland and the new Eastern countries they are in the Euros and in serious sh*t, Spain and Italy are also in crisis.

I was in favour of the UK entry into the Euro. I recall at the time it was most likely to happen that it was being suggested the ER was too high and needed to reduce to around 1.38 to 1.43 I seem to recall.

I cannot believe the UK would ever consider going into the Euro at a rate of 1:1 That would destroy the UK economy and would mean the UK going in at the worse rate ever between the two currencies. Why would they do that? I feel that will never happen at such a conversion rate, because as the UK public are already against going into the Euro and would never go in on such a massive devaluation of the GBP to the Euro.

However I would be very interested in economists and currency experts view on the merits and on what level the GBP should consider going into the Euro if the UK so decided.


Ian, I view the rates and history on http://www.x-rates.com/d/THB/GBP/graph120.html

Any idea if they are the same or if not which is better.
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Re: Baht too strong - urgently needs freedom to float

Postby Ian on Mon Mar 30, 2009 2:46 pm

DKO wrote:I think the GBP will hold out for years to come. It is not as if the US$, and Euro are the only currencies. MOST of the World including big payers are outside these two currencies. Look at some of the EU countries such Ireland and the new Eastern countries they are in the Euros and in serious sh*t, Spain and Italy are also in crisis.

I was in favour of the UK entry into the Euro. I recall at the time it was most likely to happen that it was being suggested the ER was too high and needed to reduce to around 1.38 to 1.43 I seem to recall.

I cannot believe the UK would ever consider going into the Euro at a rate of 1:1 That would destroy the UK economy and would mean the UK going in at the worse rate ever between the two currencies. Why would they do that? I feel that will never happen at such a conversion rate, because as the UK public are already against going into the Euro and would never go in on such a massive devaluation of the GBP to the Euro.

However I would be very interested in economists and currency experts view on the merits and on what level the GBP should consider going into the Euro if the UK so decided.


Ian, I view the rates and history on http://www.x-rates.com/d/THB/GBP/graph120.html

Any idea if they are the same or if not which is better.


They will both get their data from the same sources, my link gives a more detailed graph.
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Re: Baht too strong - urgently needs freedom to float

Postby Sean Moran on Mon Mar 30, 2009 2:59 pm

Image

Mae Nam Chanthaburi, 2005.

---o0o---


Words-adapted from the bible, book of ecclesiastes
Music-pete seeger

To everything (turn, turn, turn)
There is a season (turn, turn, turn)
And a time for every purpose, under heaven

A time to be born, a time to die
A time to plant, a time to reap
A time to kill, a time to heal
A time to laugh, a time to weep

To everything (turn, turn, turn)
There is a season (turn, turn, turn)
And a time for every purpose, under heaven

A time to build up,a time to break down
A time to dance, a time to mourn
A time to cast away stones, a time to gather stones together

To everything (turn, turn, turn)
There is a season (turn, turn, turn)
And a time for every purpose, under heaven

A time of love, a time of hate
A time of war, a time of peace
A time you may embrace, a time to refrain from embracing

To everything (turn, turn, turn)
There is a season (turn, turn, turn)
And a time for every purpose, under heaven

A time to gain, a time to lose
A time to rend, a time to sew
A time to love, a time to hate
A time for peace, I swear its not too late
Send Ringtone to Cell Phone Send "Turn! Turn! Turn!" Ringtone to Cell Phone Send Ringtone to Cell Phone
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Re: Baht too strong - urgently needs freedom to float

Postby DKO on Mon Mar 30, 2009 5:02 pm

Ian wrote:They will both get their data from the same sources, my link gives a more detailed graph.


Thanks Ian,

Suspected that may be the case
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Re: Baht too strong - urgently needs freedom to float

Postby PettyTyrant on Wed Apr 15, 2009 8:10 pm

Ian wrote:The Baht is currently blatantly being manipulated, I think in a cynical manner. My feelings are that there are a few very rich people in Thailand who have more power than the BOT. I suspect that they are ordering the BOT not to devalue the Baht as this will devalue their wealth. The fact that the workforce suffer as a result I do not think bothers them. I think their dilemma is they cannot find a safe currency to move their funds to so stick with the Baht which they control.


Regrettably, it is illegal to talk about this subject in more depth...
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