Cobra Gold reflects tensions as US limits role

Cobra Gold reflects tensions as US limits role

Analysis: 11-day war games scaled back a second year despite regional turmoil

Thai and US officers, along with ambassadors from the countries providing the most troops, took part in the 35th Cobra Gold start at Sattahip on Tuesday. (Photo by Pattanapong Hirunard)
Thai and US officers, along with ambassadors from the countries providing the most troops, took part in the 35th Cobra Gold start at Sattahip on Tuesday. (Photo by Pattanapong Hirunard)

The 35th Cobra Gold, Southeast Asia’s largest multilateral war game, began Tuesday at Sattahip, marked by a second year of scaled-back US involvement and its repeated calls for a swift return to civilian rule, reflecting tensions between the long-time allies over Bangkok’s lack of democracy and its closer ties to China.

The annual military exercises, attended by 27 countries this year, kicked off amid growing regional security concerns about North Korea’s rocket launch, disputes in the South China Sea and the increasing reach of Islamic State.

“Cobra Gold is now more crucial in the region than ever. With major regional players with varying capacities included, it has the potential to form a cooperative security framework to reduce mounting tensions,” said Chulalongkorn University political scientist Thitinan Pongsudhirak.

“Washington needs it [Cobra Gold] more for geo-strategy, but Thailand needs it more for international legitimacy,” said the associate professor.

The US has suspended $4.7 million (166.7 million baht) in security-related aid to Bangkok, scaled back the Cobra Gold exercise and cut back security cooperation after then army chief Prayut Chan-o-cha led a coup against the elected civilian government of Prime Minister Yingluck Shinawatra on May 22, 2014.

The suspension was implemented under Section 508 of the 1961 Foreign Assistance Act that requires the United States to cut aid to any country “whose duly elected head of government is deposed by military coup or decree”.

Some 8,500 soldiers from Thailand, the US, Japan, South Korea, Indonesia, Singapore and Malaysia will take part in Cobra Gold’s core activities this year, the military said.

A further 21 nations will participate in reduced roles, including China, as part of a humanitarian assistance session.

Like last year, 3,300 US soldiers will participate in the exercise, a significant decrease from 6,000-8,000 soldiers during its heyday, a Thai military source said.

“As in 2015 when the exercise was significantly refocused and scaled down in light of the military coup, in 2016 it will remain somewhat reduced in size... to reflect US concerns about Thailand’s political developments,” US ambassador Glyn Davies told reporters.

Since the putsch, Thailand has repeatedly been criticised by local and international rights groups for oppressing its dissidents, muzzling the media and putting its critics on trial in military courts.

The National Council for Peace and Order had previously made a new constitution a prerequisite for general elections but last month Prime Minister Prayuth said the vote would go ahead in mid-2017, in line with the regime’s so-called roadmap, irrespective of the political conditions at the time.

Mr Davies, who told the Bangkok Post in October that normalisation of relations with its century-old partner will only take place after an elected civilian government is installed, on Tuesday hailed the bond between the nations, but recognised “temporary challenges” to the relationship.

“As deep and broad as our partnership is today, it will grow stronger still when, as the prime minister has affirmed, Thailand returns to elected governance,” Mr Davies said. “With a strengthened, sustainable democratic system, Thailand’s regional leadership role, and our alliance, can reach its full potential,” he added.

Thai troops display flags of the countries providing troops at the opening ceremony Tuesday for the 35 Cobra Gold war games. (AFP photo)

Washington cannot afford to desert its non-Nato ally, which is courting China economically and militarily, analysts say.

“Obama is walking a fine tightrope of balancing US interests with US values," Paul Chambers, director of research at the Institute of Southeast Asian Affairs in Chiang Mai, told Bloomberg News.

"Full participation would anger human rights lobbies. No participation might distance the Thai military from the US,” he said.

Thailand and China held their first joint military exercises last year as the Royal Thai Navy has been pushing for a $1 billion deal to buy three Chinese submarines. China is investing in Thai railways as part of its “One Belt, One Road” initiative to revive ancient trade routes.

“China-Thailand relations, which have a good foundation, have been developing rather rapidly in the past two years,”  Bloomberg quoted Zhang Mingliang, a professor at the Southeast Asia Research Institute under Jinan University in Guangzhou.

US-led Cobra Gold, with China participating, will not be able to transform into a security framework to tackle regional disputes unless Thailand has sorted out its domestic politics, Mr Thitinan said.

“Until Thailand can get its house in order and start to lead in regional activities again, Cobra Gold is likely to remain on the rocks, down but not out and geared more for limited functional areas of regional military cooperation,” he said.

Do you like the content of this article?
COMMENT (8)