Experts see Clinton 'continuity'

Experts see Clinton 'continuity'

Trump presidency 'less stable' for Asean ties

Hillary Clinton is likely to pursue similar policies in Asia and Southeast Asia as outgoing US President Barack Obama if elected to the White House, while future ties between Asean countries and the United States under a Donald Trump administration are unpredictable, academics say.

The United States' "pivot to Asia", an important foreign policy initiative of the Obama administration, is likely to remain in effect if Ms Clinton becomes the next US president, said Prapat Thepchatree, a political science lecturer at Thammasat University.

The re-balancing act, aimed at containing and countering Chinese influence over the region, will likely find continuity under Ms Clinton if she wins the presidential race, Mr Prapat argued.

The two candidates could not have a more different set of political views, he added. "Ms Clinton is a liberal while Mr Trump is an ultra-conservative."

Traditionally, the Democrat Party has focused on building partnerships with other nations and using diplomatic methods to resolve conflicts and meet goals, the academic said.

In this regard, he added that Ms Clinton -- who served as secretary of state during Mr Obama's first term -- has both the practical and theoretical knowledge that Mr Trump lacks.

"Ms Clinton has an in-depth knowledge of what is at stake in various regions of the world, including in the smallest, operational details," Mr Prapat said.

Mr Trump, on the other hand, thinks that the US is at its lowest point. According to Mr Trump, external factors, including globalisation, caused this degradation, he said.

Immigration, the relocation of production plants overseas -- both allegedly causing American workers to lose employment opportunities -- as well as China's economic policy, have led the Republican candidate to voice his commitment to an isolationist strategy.

Mr Prapat says Mr Trump sees only disadvantages in being part of the North Atlantic Treaty Organisation (Nato), as he feels that supporting US allies overseas is pointless and too costly.

His solutions are to pursue an aggressive policy towards China, to wind down US alliances, build a wall to stop migrants illegally crossing the border from Mexico and steer clear of free-trade agreements.

Amornthep Chawla, head of the research office at CIMB Thailand Public Co Ltd, said both candidates have manifested isolationist tendencies in their economic policies, to varying degrees.

While Mr Trump always voices his strong opposition to free-trade agreements such as the Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP), Ms Clinton recently distanced herself from Mr Obama's policies regarding this matter. She has mainly done so to attract middle-class and blue-collar votes, as well as gain backing from Bernie Sanders supporters, he argued.

The TPP has been a flagship policy the Obama administration has been trying to implement in order to help the United States regain its position as a major economic influence in the region.

The United States is the third-largest export market for Thai products, after China and Japan. However, most companies that invest in Thailand are from the United States, Mr Amornthep said. Therefore, a change of policy will likely have consequences for Thailand and the region.

While Mr Prapat said that Mr Trump has never manifested an interest in the region, nor has he clearly mentioned Thailand or Asean countries in his speeches, Wibunphong Phunprasit, also a Thammasat University lecturer, said a Trump presidency will be kinder to autocratic rulers.

"There will be less talk of human rights with Mr Trump than with Ms Clinton," he said.

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