No matter the result of the Aug 7 referendum, political conflicts will persist as the two main political camps now aim to exploit the referendum results to justify their next moves against one another, a seminar was told on Thursday.
Election Commissioner Somchai Srisutthiyakorn described the referendum as a high-cost rite where the result will be exploited as justification for either side's stance.
It is being used in a fierce fight between the two political camps, he said.
One side consists of the two major political parties, the red-shirt United Front for Democracy against Dictatorship (UDD), academics, non-governmental organisations and political groups, he said.
The other is a broad group of people supporting Prime Minister Prayut Chan-o-cha, he said.
The rest are people who do not subscribe to either grouping and medium-sized parties that will largely benefit from the draft charter, he said, adding these people and parties have yet to make their opinions known regarding the referendum. Polls show a large majority of voters are undecided, though many may simply have yet to declare their hand.
"If the draft charter is passed in the referendum, this will be seen as justification for the military government and show that even with those two main parties united, they can't beat military rule," he said.
"But if the camp moving against the draft charter wins, a movement to oust the military government will be justified by the referendum result, which will give one side a political advantage over the other," he said.
"Those who believe the referendum is a process to listen to what the majority of voters think should think again and accept the truth that it is only a rite," he said.
In the event the side supporting the draft charter wins, its opponents will then accuse the winning side of cheating, he said.
But if the side voting against the draft charter wins, this will trigger a movement against the military government, which will only further complicate the country's political situation, he said.
Constitution Drafting Committee (CDC) spokesman Udom Rathamarit admitted the referendum may be seen as a rite but it is at least an "ice-breaking mechanism" for dealing with groups of different political biases.
The political polarisation will not simply fade away unless something is done to tackle the problem, he said.
He added he was optimistic the different political camps may share some common ground as to what direction they want the country to move in and the referendum may be a tool to gauge the opinions of a majority of Thais.
In response to calls for the CDC to engage in a public debate on the draft charter, Mr Udom said as each side refuses to listen to the other, the CDC does not want to be part of a destructive debate in which the side with better persuasive speaking skills will win.
"As those academics and movement groups share a stereotype against the military, we are then perceived as [the military's] poisonous fruit. And no matter how hard we try to explain and defend our writing of the charter, it will never sound good to them," he said.