Tida Thawornseth wants to see her United Front for Democracy against Dictatorship (UDD) and its ally the Pheu Thai Party maintain a low profile even after the military-sponsored administration ends and a civilian-led government is elected.
The former UDD chairwoman believes it is better for the red-shirt group to "stay quiet" and Pheu Thai politicians "not to form a new government" as the military's influence is expected to prolong after the general election scheduled for next year.
Tida Thavornseth, seen here protesting against procedures for the national referendum on the constitution, continues to urge a low profile for her red shirts and the Pheu Thai Party. (File photo by Tawatchai Kemgumnerd)
Her outlook on the pro-Thaksin camp's likely fortunes appears less than optimistic, though a prominent Pheu Thai politician dragged into a legal dispute last week managed to escape criminal charges.
The ruling could have served as a major hindrance to both the UDD and Pheu Thai Party if he had been jailed, Ms Tida says.
INQUIRYLINES, published bi-weekly on Mondays is a Bangkok Post column to present in-depth details of a range of issues from politics and social interest to eye-catching everyday lives.
In a ruling issued last Wednesday by the Supreme Court's Criminal Division for Holders of Political Positions, former prime minister Somchai Wongsawat was acquitted of wrongdoing stemming from his order cracking down on demonstrators of the anti-Thaksin People's Alliance for Democracy who tried to block him from delivering a policy statement to parliament in 2008.
The confrontation left two protesters dead and 471 people injured, but Mr Somchai was found not guilty as his government was required to perform its duty and the protest did not match the definition of a peaceful gathering.
His escape from the charge has led to anticipation that he might win support to lead the Pheu Thai Party again because of his close ties with party founder and former prime minister Thaksin Shinawatra, currently living in self-exile abroad to escape a jail term in the Ratchadapisek land case. Mr Somchai is the husband of Yaowapa Wongsawat, Thaksin's younger sister.
However, the verdict in Mr Somchai's case is not the only factor which Ms Tida considers in assessing the future path of the Pheu Thai Party.
The 73-year-old university scholar-turned-activist looks back on the past when the party was first led by Thaksin and his successors, from late prime minister Samak Sundaravej and Mr Somchai to former prime minister Yingluck Shinawatra.
All underwent political turbulence, including the 2006 and 2014 coups against Thaksin and Ms Yingluck, said Ms Tida, pointing to the need to think of the party's situation in a wider political context.
In her opinion, without true democracy in society, it will be difficult to firmly secure the power of a civilian-led government. It is a problem which will confront whoever is elected Pheu Thai leader.
''No matter who is voted to be a prime minister, she or he might face imprisonment" stemming from legal disputes, Ms Tida said.
She believes the political environment after the 2018 election won't be kind to the Pheu Thai Party. With its political stance that once led to coups, it is hard to think it can regain office in future.
''Or if it does manage to form a government, it will be only a lame duck government,'' Ms Tida said.
''If the military, together with state officials, does not support you and the Senate does not back you, to survive as a political party is already a miracle, not to mention the chance to be a government.''
Her concern over the Senate follows an organic bill on the selection of senators that says the National Council for Peace and Order (NCPO) will have the final say on picking all 250 appointed senators to serve a five-year term during the transition period to full democracy. It raises concerns over whether the military will hold on to power.
These are some of the factors which Ms Tida believes will play a role in shaping the political destiny of the Pheu Thai Party. They arise naturally from the ex-UDD chairwoman adopting a democratic approach to analysing Thai politics.
It is not surprising she holds such a viewpoint, considering Ms Tida's background. During her university days, the native of Nakhon Si Thammarat not only studied pharmacology, but she also took part in street demonstrations to fight for political ideology in the Oct 14, 1973 student uprising and the Oct 6, 1976 student massacre. She was also a member of now-defunct Communist Party of Thailand.
Ms Tida became chairwoman of the UDD after its 2010 protest in which UDD-core members, including her husband Weng Tojirakarn, faced terrorism charges. The situation facing the UDD is also not good because Ms Tida believes more red-shirt co-leaders are likely to face imprisonment related to their role in past rallies.
UDD's incumbent chairman Jatuporn Prompan was last month sentenced to 12 months in prison after the Supreme Court found him guilty of defaming former prime minister Abhisit Vejjajiva during a speech in 2009. The ruling was unexpected, Ms Tida commented, saying this is a ''political signal'' that a similar fate in protest-related cases might eventually follow for other key UDD people.
Yet the UDD will not give up efforts to fight for true democracy, she said. It must adopt a wait-and-see approach, avoiding actions that will bring more trouble to the group, said Ms Tida, now serving as red-shirt chief adviser.
She wants the group to maintain its current status without a need to select a new chairman to replace Jatuporn. Any initiative to restructure the group will cause "ripple effects'' for key UDD leaders upcountry who are currently under authorities' watch.
Ms Tida has spoken to Jatuporn recently about such matters. ''We agree we can still work and consult with each other to run the UDD in a low-profile way,'' she said.