Businesses and consumers will be affected the most if Bangkok is paralysed by anti-government protesters, and companies should outline measures to minimise the impacts, say executives.
Both the Federation of Thai Industries (FTI) and the Thai Chamber of Commerce (TCC) are concerned about the People's Democratic Reform Committee (PDRC) threat to shut down Bangkok from Jan 13, saying the siege should be limited to specific areas.
"Agencies in charge of security could be targets, and the protesters should state clearly how long a shutdown will last," said FTI vice-chairman Tanit Sorat.
Even businesses outside the capital would feel the pinch, he said. "If they lay siege across Bangkok, traffic and business activities such as banking, retail and tourism will be severely affected. Exporting and importing cannot function, affecting oil supplies and drugs used in hospitals," said Mr Tanit.
He said the political conflict has severely affected people's confidence in Thailand, confusing international communities.
"If this situation continues for a month, I cannot imagine the impact or how the economy could withstand it," he said.
TCC vice-chairman Pornsil Patcharintanakul said the tourism sector would be affected, as a shutdown is not expected to end quickly. Export documents need to be issued in a couple of days to ensure shipments are sent without delay. Raw materials should be stockpiled at factories so that production can continue if traffic is jammed, and transport should be managed to prevent shortages, he said.
"If the PDRC can mobilise a large amount of people to shut down Bangkok, the government will need to do something," said Mr Pornsil.
"Businesses should prepare in advance, as anything could happen."
Meanwhile, the Finance Ministry insists the budget disbursement process can continue even if the capital is shut down as long as the closure does not last until March when the new investment budget will be considered.
If the political unrest continues into March, it will likely lead to inefficiencies in the new investment budget approval, said a ministry source.
Regular expenditures and the investment budget for carry-over projects are done automatically, said the source.
Budget disbursement is expected to play a greater role in driving economic growth, as exports, domestic consumption and private investment are slumping.
For the first two months of fiscal 2014 started Oct 1, budget disbursement amounted to 528 billion baht, down by 14% year-on-year.
The source said it is difficult to predict the economic impact from a shutdown.
The Fiscal Policy Office recently slashed its 2014 economic growth estimate to 4% from 5.1%, as long delays are expected to the 2-trillion-baht infrastructure and 350-billion-baht water management projects.