The recent election of Surachai Liangboonlertchai as the new Senate speaker delivered a double surprise.
Surachai: Surprise winner
The fact that he got to the finishing line amid what had been strongly speculated to be a tough competition caught some observers off guard.
And when Sen Surachai proceeded to defeat his nearest rival, fellow appointed-senator Pol Gen Jongrak Juthanont, by a surprisingly wide margin, observers were left searching for answers as to how he was able to pull it off.
After the votes had been cast and counted, the tally in the chamber confirmed Sen Surachai’s triumph over Pol Gen Jongrak. Sen Surachai walked away with 96 votes, beating Pol Gen Jongrak who garnered 51 votes.
The outcome painted a picture of support in the Senate swinging away from the government, which is in a tight spot after Yingluck Shinawatra was stripped of her premiership by the Constitutional Court in the Thawil Pliensri transfer case and the National Anti-Corruption Commission decided to recommend her for impeachment by the Senate.
Pundits clearly did not expect Pol Gen Jongrak, who according to some political sources has the backing of the government, to have suffered such an overwhelming defeat.
Some people even feel the speaker election result offers an early indication of how the impeachment proceedings against Ms Yingluck will turn out.
However, numbers may not tell the whole story, according to Warin Thiamjaras, a former senator who retains ties to the Group of 40 senators who harbour rather unsympathetic views of the government.
Mr Warin theorised Sen Surachai’s success may not necessarily be taken as a waning of government support in the Senate.
In fact, many pro-government senators who voted for Sen Surachai could continue to hold firm.
They may have been forced by circumstance and the need to save their own skins to choose Sen Surachai over Pol Gen Jongrak.
Mr Warin feels the win came not because Sen Surachai had lobbied harder or was regarded as being better qualified than Pol Gen Jongrak.
As the political climate continues to intensify after Ms Yingluck’s forced departure from politics — which has left the status of the caretaker cabinet in doubt — anti-government protesters are gaining more traction in their quest for an appointed prime minister to set an agenda for national reform before a general election.
Mr Warin says the pro-government senators may have figured that if they voted for a person of the ruling Pheu Thai Party’s choice as Senate speaker, the consequence could be heightened civil unrest that would provoke a military revolt. If that happened, the Senate would be dissolved and they would lose their jobs, a much-dreaded prospect for half the sitting senators who won their seats in the election on March 30.
It would be reasonable to assume the senators would prefer to keep the Senate functioning longer. At least, they get to enjoy their vested power as Upper House members and the various perquisites that come with it, Mr Warin said.
There comes a time when survival takes priority over affiliation.
Home is where the protest is
Over the past six months, People’s Democratic Reform Committee (PDRC) secretary-general Suthep Thaugsuban appeared to be everywhere in Bangkok. There was Samsen railway station, Democracy Monument on Ratchadamnoen Avenue, Government Complex on Chaeng Watthana Road and Lumpini park.
The PDRC leader made a few visits to Government House, which was surrounded by demonstrators of the PDRC’s ally the Network of Students and People for Reform of Thailand (NSPRT) during those months, forcing the caretaker government to find other places to work. But he never set foot inside until last Saturday.
Suthep: Promises to return protesters to Ratchadamnoen after the PDRC achieves victory.
On May 10, Mr Suthep and the PDRC demonstrators entered Government House without any resistance.
The PDRC leader negotiated with the soldiers standing guard to allow his group access to the Santi Maitree building in the compound of Government House. He wanted to turn Government House into a coordinating centre to form a "people’s council" to work on national reform.
However, a source in the PDRC said Mr Suthep’s “negotiations” with the soldiers were nothing but a formality.
According to the source, Mr Suthep had already coordinated with authorities concerned before he marched into the Government House compound last week and demanded to use the Santi Maitree building.
While some perceived the move as a symbolic display of power to show the PDRC protesters had an edge over the caretaker government, others could not help but think there must be something more to it.
Mr Suthep’s decision to enter the seat of government was not by chance.
It happened after the departure of Yingluck Shinawatra who was stripped of the post of prime minister over the Thawil Pliensri transfer case. The Constitutional Court ruling, which also disqualified nine of her cabinet members, has opened the way for the group's reform plan before a election campaign.
While the PDRC secretary-general’s move was enough to make the pro-government United Front for Democracy against Dictatorship frustrated, his visit to the parliament and a closed-door meeting with acting Senate Speaker Surachai Liangboonlertchai made the red shirts and pro-government elements fume.
The PDRC has been demanding that the Senate, the only functioning legislative body after the House dissolution on Dec 9 last year, nominate an interim prime minister for royal endorsement. The acting Senate speaker’s welcome of the group has rubbed salt into the red shirts’ wounds.
When the PDRC decided to abandon Ratchadamnoen Avenue on Jan 13 to launch its "Bangkok Shutdown" campaign, some protesters did not like it. Ratchadamnoen was like a “second home”. And none had the slightest idea how long the fight would take.
Aware of the protesters’ emotional attachment to the place, Mr Suthep promised to bring them back to Ratchadamnoen to celebrate victory. With Ms Yingluck out of the way, their call for an interim government is becoming closer to reality.
Government House is the perfect location for the group to mount its "final" battle before they march “home”, according to the PDRC source.
Stifling the money flow
When power changes hands, some lucrative state projects which used to enjoy almost unrestricted supervision suddenly become objects of scrutiny.
The embattled caretaker government has witnessed its political fortunes plummet since the attempt to push the controversial amnesty bill through parliament last year (only to see it aborted under the weight of mass protests).
The caretaker government is now in an even more precarious position with a general election in sight but hardly a done-deal as yet. Without a government in full charge of national administration, various significant projects pending approval or under way face an uncertain future.
Many projects which can go ahead have fallen into the hands of civil servants to manage. The business of drawing up budgets for state projects requires meticulous calculation and careful filing of balance sheets, said a source familiar with the matter.
The source said a lot of projects are "tapped into" by politicians in charge of relevant policies. The ill-gotten gains provide the corrupt politicians with the cash reserves to buy their way back into power.
The anti-government People’s Democratic Reform Committee, headed by Suthep Thaugsuban, insists the bedrock of national reform which the country badly needs is about sidelining those politicians who have indulged in gross power abuses and corruption.
The PDRC credited its expansion in its early days to participation by people who want an anti-corruption platform to be included in the reform initiative.
His opponents, however, reminded Mr Suthep of the ghost of a land scandal in 1995 when he was accused of being involved in the distribution of Sor Por Kor land intended for landless farmers to wealthy individuals in Phuket. The saga contributed to the Chuan Leekpai government bowing out under duress.
A source in the Interior Ministry has noted that since the House of Representatives was dissolved late last year, a budget of between 10 and 20 million baht granted to each province to spend on special projects has been largely untouched.
The source said in the past, it was found the money was often divided up among political figures influential in their respective provinces.
They typically claim between 10% and 30% of the money earmarked for development projects which they helped to initiate.
The reason politicians have been keeping their hands off the project finances is probably due to fear of a new government, which might be headed by a "neutral" prime minister, launching a probe into state spending and tracing the money trail to people behind budget abuse.
In fact, the source said, some senior civil servants have prepared paperwork underpinning graft in projects they had seen. They thought the documents could come in handy if and when a corruption investigation is conducted.
On the other hand, the evolving political developments have prompted certain procurement projects — with specifications rigged to favour certain private companies with strong political connections — to be rushed.
The source said tender offers have been known to be put on hold after news of bid fixing was leaked. Consequently, board meetings scheduled to approve the deals were postponed indefinitely.