At the height of the political conflict, Democrat Party leader Abhisit Vejjajiva was warned to go with the flow of developments or watch his party decline.
Abhisit: Too many comments
Mr Abhisit championed a reconciliation platform during the last few months of the Yingluck Shinawatra administration. His initiative, however, landed with a thud as few political actors reciprocated his feelings.
The British-educated former prime minister had a lot of priorities to straighten out as he walked a fine line when the colour-coded conflict earlier this year came to the boil.
By the time his idea of reconciliation was formed, some stakeholders in the conflict were expressing uncertainty as to whether it was too late for any kind of move toward unity.
Putting forth a proposed reconciliation platform also threatened to turn friends into foes. A vast number of the People’s Democratic Reform Committee protesters who had rallied in Bangkok were no doubt Democrat supporters. They had set their minds on national reform and insisted they would not settle for anything less than politicians being completely excluded from the reform process.
What Mr Abhisit offered was reconciliation that could spell compromise, which would have meant politicians retaining certain capacities in the reform process.
For some PDRC supporters at least, Mr Abhisit was taking a contrary line to the protesters’ goal.
After the May 22 coup, the Democrat leader voiced a stand that many feared could further chisel away Democrat votes.
He made it clear that seizing power was alien to the nature of democratic rule. He stressed the usurping of government power had its consequences and one of them had to do with the image of politicians taking a battering.
Mr Abhisit feels politicians in the post-coup era are somewhat demonised as agents of destruction. But he maintains only a small number of politicians deserve such a reputation.
There remain, in his view, many career politicians who hold steadfast to principles, especially democratic ones.
However, the more views Mr Abhisit expresses, the fewer friends he is making, according to observers.
A Democrat source said party insiders had asked Mr Abhisit to hold his peace and take it easy on the political comments. If he continues, it could well be politically detrimental and discredit the entire party.
The source said now was the time for the party to consolidate. Several PDRC core leaders may be seeking to return to the Democrat fold, and they would provide precious resources to strengthen the party when national reform, which is expected to be vigorously pursued by the National Council for Peace and Order, is up and running.
The source explained that if discontent in the party whipped up by Mr Abhisit’s comments goes unchecked, it could present a direct challenge to the party leadership.
Mr Abhisit would be wise to avoid the subject of the military coup for the time being and prepare the party for the next general election, whenever that might be. The NCPO’s timeline puts the election roughly a year and a half from now, at the least, which should give the Democrats plenty of time to get their act together.
The political wilderness
Political parties and politicians prefer to keep a low profile and their mouths shut these days and let the National Council for Peace and Order get on with the business of running the country.
This has led observers to wonder for how long a major political party like Pheu Thai will be able to lie low — or whether it is up to something.
Sanoh: New party tipped
When Pheu Thai was at the peak of its power, many of its members did not take advantage of this to accumulate wealth. So, when the military seized power, they had to return to their former careers.
Some of the politicians were construction contractors, some ran rice mills, while others were farmers, raising livestock.
Many of them now have to draw on the reserves they have kept for years to eke out a living while they are “out of work”.
Some Pheu Thai members are arranging informal get-togethers to prepare for a future election.
But their political fate hangs in the balance as many still face legal wrangles in connection with cases relating to charter amendments.
Almost 300 former party MPs have been called by the Constitutional Court to testify in the case involving the charter amendment on international treaties.
This group has also been called to defend themselves before the National Anti-Corruption Commission over their role in voting to pass the amendment involving the make-up of the Senate on Jan 17.
The party has assessed that it stands little chance of winning the majority of seats in the next poll and returning to power to lead the next government.
“Now is not our time,” a party source said.
But what probably hurts them most is that senior party member Sanoh Thienthong has told former party MPs inside his faction, including those in Sa Kaeo and in some northeastern provinces, to jump ship and prepare to join a new party, the source said.
The source said a party heavyweight has received support from the military in control of the country’s administration to “downsize” Pheu Thai.
Long before the coup took place on May 22, Mr Sanoh reportedly warned politicians in his faction not to stay with Pheu Thai for too long.
But those politicians still question why his son, Sorawong, remained as deputy public health minister until the coup-makers took over and unseated him, along with all the remaining cabinet members of the caretaker Yingluck Shinawatra government.
May the force be with you
The seizure of power by the military has altered the line-up of candidates for national police chief.
Until recently, the candidates were police generals with apparent affiliations to the Pheu Thai Party-led government. Among them was deputy national police chief Pongsapat Pongcharoen, who is also the Office of Narcotics Control Board secretary-general.
Somyos: Gained an edge
But the take-over of national administration by the National Council for Peace and Order (NCPO) has changed the situation completely.
The deck of cards has been reshuffled with mostly new candidates entering the succession list, although Pol Gen Pongsapat remains in the running. However, now that Pheu Thai is no longer pulling the strings, Pol Gen Pongsapat’s chance of heading the police force is next to zero, according to many observers.
Another deputy police chief who might make the cut is Pol Gen Aek Angsananont. He rose to prominence on account of his exceptional coordination skills. Pol Gen Aek also is known not have been heavily connected to the Pheu Thai Party, although he may have been rather close to the former police chief Pracha Promnok, who is a stalwart of Pheu Thai.
Soon after the NCPO engineered the coup on May 22, Pol Gen Adul Saengsingkaew was removed as police chief and transferred to the Prime Minister’s office despite retaining his concurrent post of deputy chief of the NCPO.
A vacancy at the top of the police force needs to be filled and Pol Gen Watcharapol Prasarnratchakit, another deputy chief and Pol Gen Adul’s classmate, was roped in to replace Pol Gen Adul as acting head of the Royal Thai Police Office.
However, sources in the RTPO said Pol Gen Watcharapol will likely remain acting chief until he retires at the end of the current fiscal year in September.
NCPO chief Gen Prayuth Chan-ocha’s appointment of Pol Gen Watcharapol to the acting police chief’s role may be an indication that he is taking his time to sift through the choices for the new head.
An RTPO source said that at this point no deputy police chief stands out among the candidates other than Pol Gen Somyos Phumpanmuang, who has been entrusted by Pol Gen Watcharapol to oversee security tasks post-coup. Pol Gen Somyos’s name crops up often in the media as he leads the operation to contain the anti-coup activists who have staged resistance rallies mainly on the weekends in Bangkok.
Pol Gen Somyos is a trusted aide of the retired former police chief Pol Gen Patcharawat Wongsuwon, who is the younger brother of the former army chief Gen Prawit Wongsuwon.
While Pol Gen Patcharawat was still active in the police force, he hand-picked Pol Gen Somyos as the RTPO spokesman, overlooking Pol Gen Pongsapat who is a more familiar face and commands a larger profile in the media.
Pol Gen Patcharawat promoted Pol Gen Somyos to a full general, a move that would later qualify him to enter the race for police chief. However, the line-up of police chief candidates changed in the subsequent governments, influenced mainly by the ruling political parties of the day.
With Pheu Thai out of the picture in politics, at least for now, Pol Gen Somyos has gained an edge over other deputy chiefs. He is seen as a hands-on senior officer who can respond well to the NCPO’s directives.
Pol Gen Somyos, a former close aide to the late Social Action Party leader Montri Pongpanich, may not have expected he would be in line to be police chief, as much as he and others may not have anticipated the May 22 coup.