The German election method to be adopted into the new constitution may hinder the country's development because a government can never be strong and a chance that a party will have majority votes to drive its key policies will be very slim, warned a reform councillor.
More balance of power but at the expense of political stability, says Mr Sombat (File photo by Seksan Rojjanametakun)
The result will be a coalition government, with a lot of haggling for ministerial seats in which the largest party have little say, Sombat Thamrongthanyawong, chairman of the National Reform Council (NRC)'s political reform committee, said at a seminar on Saturday.
Small parties will end up controlling all important ministries and the prime minister will not have a chance to supervise large ones, predicted the former National Institute of Development Administration (Nida) president, according to a Matichon Online report.
The German electoral method is designed for a balance of power in parliament by empowering minority parties and limiting the clout of the majority one.
"It will be the Abhisit Vejjajiva government all over again," Mr Sombat warned, refrerring to a scenario when a large party has to make large sacrifices to remain head of the coalition.
"More worrisome is that a large party may try to sidestep the restrictions by splitting its party — sending its popular former MPs to run independently instead of under its banner — and then have its canvassers persuade people to vote for these independent MPs on the constituency ticket and for its party on the party-list ticket.
"That way, a party stands a better chance of winning more MPs to its camp when forming a government," Mr Sombat said.
This is a major challenge for the Constitution Drafting Committee, he added.
"In my view, a good political system must help strengthen political parties, so long as good checks and balances are in place and they can be impeached if found abusing their power."
Commenting on former PM Yingluck Shinawatra's impeachment on Friday, Mr Sombat said this was a historic moment when parliament successfully removed a politician with three fifths of all votes.
"Our impeachment process is not like the process in the UK. We adapted from the US' system. The new charter plans to have the two chambers of 650 MPs and senators impeach a politician by a majority vote. This may not work in practice because coalition parties will make sure they control more than 330 votes to prevent impeachment of their members."
He cited as an example the Thaksin Shinawatra government in 1997, when it controlled more than 300 votes of the House.
"A failed impeachment will make corruption even more rampant," he warned.
Under Germany's mixed-member proportional system, there is a constituency vote and a party vote but the party vote determines the share of all seats a party wins. If there are 100 MPs split equally between constituency and party-list MPs and a party wins 10 of the 50 constituency MPs but 40% of the party vote, it will get 30 party-list MPs, bringing its total seats to 40, its share of the seats. There is also a threshold for votes, mainly 3-5% of all seats or winning at least one constituency MP, for a party to be eligible to any seat at all.