Election fever dominates everything in Myanmar at present. And according to unofficial opinion polls, more than half of the population are yet to decide who they will vote for. The next few months before the election date is announced will only fuel anticipation and speculation. And with more than 70 political parties registered to contest the polls, it is going to be a massive event.
“Everything depends on the outcome of the elections,” said May Htin, a young primary school teacher. “If Daw [Aung San] Suu [Kyi] wins, life here will be better for all of us.”
The idea of a free and fair election is exciting many ordinary citizens in Myanmar. “I am really looking forward to being able to finally vote for Daw Aung San Suu Kyi,” said a 41-year-old taxi driver, Win Lwin, who lives in the northern outskirts of Yangon. “I was too young to vote in 1990, could not vote in 2010 because my party boycotted the elections, and again could not in 2012 [by-elections] as there was no contest in my constituency.”
The main pro-democracy party, Mrs Suu Kyi’s National League for Democracy (NLD) is relishing the prospect of fighting for seats in the forthcoming polls. “If it’s free and fair,” said Win Htein, a leading member of the NLD and MP for Meitikla, near Mandalay in central Myanmar, “we’re looking to have a handsome majority.”
The NLD’s election manifesto is almost complete, its main author and party spokesman Nyan Win told Spectrum recently. Party policy platforms for the election campaign are also being assembled — including education, economy, health, labour and peace — and will be announced next month, according to party workers involved in drafting them.
But the party manifesto and policies will not be crucial in deciding the outcome of the election, Hantha Myint, one of the senior members of the party and chief political adviser, admitted. “Our trump card is the Lady, and people will vote for her,” he said.
LEADING LADY
Although official electioneering cannot take place until the election date is formally announced, already Mrs Suu Kyi is effectively campaigning, having visited several ethnic areas last month. She used the opportunity to explain the party’s position on constitutional change and the elections.
“She’s trying to drum up support amongst the ethnic communities which will be very influential in the next elections,” said Khine Win, a political commentator and director of the Sandhi Governance Institute.
“Sixty percent of the reason I won the by-election [in April 2012] was Daw Aung San Suu Kyi’s support,” said Win Htein. “Her visit to my Meitikla constituency during the campaign was decisive.”
Many people are going to vote for the Lady, rather than the party, most NLD executive members concede.
“The person is more important than the party … her personal influence is very big — she is our most effective political tool,” said Soe Win Oo, also known as Dr Bio, a young activist member of the party’s information committee. “The party does need to broaden its electoral support … but we are trying to connect with our own people all over the country.”
Analysts are less optimistic in their assessment of the NLD’s electoral chances. Most believe the party can only expect to win some 40% of the seats, making it a powerful force in the next parliament, but not in a position to form government alone.
“There won’t be a landslide victory for the NLD this time,” warns Zarganar, a renowned comedian and former political prisoner. The NLD is just like Manchester United, shouting and parading around in their red shirts, he mused.
“What’s the difference between a crocodile and a politician? One has thick skin and 40 sharp teeth, the other thin skin and no teeth,” he giggled. That is the NLD, presumably.
A NUMBERS GAME
Myanmar’s ruling Union Solidarity and Development Party (USDP) is also getting ready for the forthcoming elections amid increased internal tension and uncertainty over its political future. Although it had a landslide victory in the 2010 polls — the first multiparty election since 1990 when the NLD won an overwhelming majority but was never allowed to form a government by the military junta that controlled the country at the time — this election is going to be more competitive. The elections in 2010 were widely dismissed as a sham; the NLD boycotted the vote. This time the battle will be much harder.
The USDP has been working in the constituencies for more than two years to convince people that it deserves another term in office, according to senior party leaders. “We are very busy because we cannot afford to lose the next elections,” Htay Oo, the party’s vice-chairman and MP, told Spectrum last year. “We need to make people see what we have done for them."
Since the beginning of the year the party has stepped up its “electoral work”. The party recently launched a door-to-door information campaign targeting farmers and workers, including in remote villages and ethnic areas. “In some cases we help people get national ID cards. We provide solar power in villages without electricity, provide health care and fresh water, and assist with land-grab problems,” said Tint Zaw, a senior USDP official. The party also offers low-interest loans.
In the meantime, election fever is growing. The USDP is well advanced in its planning, although it is still in the process of selecting the candidates that will run in the 3,000 constituencies. These should be announced within two weeks, according to party officials. Many of the existing MPs and ministers are expected to be on the list of candidates. In preparation, ministers are touring the electorates already making promises — to build roads, schools and hospitals. Constituent MPs are looking for projects to enhance the party’s popularity locally.
Ministers are also seeking help from foreign businessmen who come with possible joint ventures, asking if they can invest in projects in their constituencies to bolster the USDP’s popularity. Last year Tourism Minister Htay Aung — also a member of the Myanmar Investment Committee — informally asked some visiting international agrarian business representatives if they could assist in establishing a winery in his constituency.
This has put the NLD at a disadvantage, complained Win Htein, who has also used government funds and Japanese NGO financial support to build water wells and irrigation channels in his electorate in Meitikla. “We’re only 43 to their hundreds,” he said. “We’re overwhelmingly outnumbered.”
DIVISION IN THE RANKS
But the USDP’s methodical approach to the forthcoming polls masks the major internal problems the party is facing. The ruling party naturally assumes that the next president will come from within its ranks — particularly as the constitution prevents Mrs Suu Kyi from being president because her children are not Myanmar nationals. This has caused a major rift between the party's two top guns — President Thein Sein and party chairman Shwe Mann, who is also the lower house speaker. Both were top generals in the former regime, and the rivalry is so intense it threatens to split the party asunder.
Shwe Mann has tried to position himself to be the next in line to become president, building strong alliances within the party, with former military hardliners and forming a pact with Mrs Suu Kyi. As acting party chairman, Shwe Mann hastily called a central committee meeting last weekend to assert control over the party. He was appointed to run the election campaign, which he hopes will strengthen his bid to be the party’s presidential nominee. The party will wait until after the election to make the nomination, for fear of splitting the party at this vital juncture.
Battle lines are being drawn within the USDP that could erupt into open warfare in the near future. Shwe Mann is confident he has the numbers to get the top job this time around, according to sources close to the speaker. Analysts believe Shwe Mann’s main support base in the party is in the central committee and the lower house of parliament. “Voices from within the parliament say he heads a strong faction in the party and has the edge,” said Khin Zaw Win, an independent analyst who works closely with many members of parliament.
Although that may be his power base, there are many MPs who are suspicious of the speaker’s ambitions and remain ambivalent towards him. Former academics, businessmen and diplomats who are now in parliament are not strong supporters and given an alternative and an incentive may support a more liberal, reformist faction in the party if it was to emerge.
The chief ministers and MPs in the regional governments and parliaments are still staunch supporters of the current president. The chief ministers in particular, many of whom are senior members of the party and owe their current position to him, remain fiercely loyal to Thein Sein.
His biggest and strongest support base is naturally in the executive. Many of the most loyal ministers in his cabinet have been urging the president to seek re-election, arguing that the country needs him to maintain continuity and stability.
So far Thein Sein has refused to confirm whether he will seek a second term in office. Sources close to the president say he will only make up his mind next month. It is also believed that Thein Sein has fallen out of favour with Than Shwe — a former top general who relinquished power in 2011 — whose support is crucial for any would-be president.
Some sources close to the president understand he is keen to step down and retire from politics altogether. He feels his reform efforts have not been understood or appreciated. Of course, the ministers’ futures are all tied to Thein Sein; if he bows out then that would also end their political careers.
'BIGGEST OBSTACLE TO REFORM'
In recent weeks, USDP officials have been at pains to insist that there is no risk of the party splitting or disintegrating.
Although the crucial central committee helped pacify the ructions within the party for the time being, it has only deferred the looming showdown. The rivalry between the two factions will not dissipate, even if Thein Sein relinquishes his position. The battle has become one between Shwe Mann and the more liberal reformist wing.
“Shwe Mann is the biggest obstacle in the country to the reform process,” one of the president’s political advisers told Spectrum on condition of anonymity. And there are many in the party who agree. The issue is to find a strong politician within the party to oppose the speaker.
The veteran politician and speaker of the upper house, Khin Aung Myint, has emerged as the potential leader of this new grouping. He’s a former soldier — with close ties to the former leader Than Shwe — as well as a scholar and a writer. Khin Aung Myint’s antipathy towards the lower house speaker is well known. His aides have often described Shwe Mann as “more Catholic than the Pope” in his sudden conversion to democracy, but beware they warned: “He’s a wolf in sheep’s clothing.”
There seems also to have been a rift between Khin Aung Myint and the president in recent months. So he may yet prove to be the ideal compromise within the USDP.
So far the election date has not been set, though the electoral commission head, Tin Aye, recently announced there would be a 60-day campaign period, and that voting would be first-past-the-post — as in previous elections — and not proportional representation as had been proposed. Voter lists for each constituency will be finalised before the end of September, he said.
He also ruled out the possibility of a referendum on constitutional change being held at the same time. Tin Aye confirmed that the election would be held in November and the actual date announced in August. Sources close to both the president and the electoral commissioner have strongly hinted that it will be held on Nov 22.
For the moment there are no such things as opinion polls in Myanmar — though some rudimentary efforts are being made to start such surveys. According to the recent results from a survey conducted in Yangon by a local business analysis company, 65% of the population still don't know who they will vote for. Of those who do, 25% will vote for Aung San Suu Kyi, 7% for Thein Sein and 1% for Shwe Mann.
But with more than 70 parties contesting the elections, the results are far from decided. And several recently formed parties, along with the ethnic parties, may yet play an important role in the outcome of the elections.
“The Farmers Development Party and the National Development Party are going to give the top two parties a run for their money,” said comedian Zarganar. “And the ethnic parties will win in their areas for certain.” n