It's not a bad job, all things considered, to be a member of the military government. The pay's fine, the perks are outstanding, you don't have to put up with any of that "democratic protest" nonsense like Beijing's flunky in Hong Kong suffers.
If something decent happens, plaudits roll in. If something unpleasant happens, plaudits roll in because, while it's bad news, whatever happened was the fault of someone else, preferably someone far away.
Last week was a good illustration, with a rather typical good news/bad news cycle, and the new version of candour and analysis from the doctors of spin.
The value of exports dropped 7.4% in August, compared with August last year. This is hardly an economic blip for a country with massive investment in selling stuff abroad. In July, year-on-year exports fell a little less than 1%. But in August, foreign sales dropped to US$18.9 billion (617 billion baht), bad news for many — businesses and their employees first and foremost.
Presenting Nuntawan Sakuntanaga, director-general of the Commerce Ministry's Department of International Trade Promotion, to apply the bedside manner needed in depressing diagnoses: The world did it.
"The world's economic recovery is a lot slower than expected," said the spin surgeon. And the world will probably continue to fail to meet the expectations of the military-sponsored government until at least next year.
A day later, the economic news was pretty rosy. Not only is Thailand bound to regain its No 1 rice-seller trophy, but it looks pretty much certain that the world that let us down so very badly yesterday will buy 11 million tonnes of Thai rice before New Year's Eve, which makes it the biggest rice-selling year in Thai history ever.
Please welcome Duangporn Rodphaya, director-general of the Foreign Trade Department, who will explain that while yesterday it was the world's fault for lousy export sales, today it is thanks to the wonderful foresight and attention of the authorities who took over a mere 137 days ago and led us to the golden land.
"Prices are more competitive" than under that former leader, what's-her-name, the sister of what's-his-name, and thank goodness for current leaders who have helped rice dealers move stock, travelled the world to sell batches to China, Indonesia and the Philippines, and who are succeeding in their vow to move at least 500,000 tonnes of rice a month in government-to-government deals.
The economy has been at risk for most of this year, limping at times. There are those who think figures have been carefully massaged so they don't show Thailand is in a technical recession — two financial quarters in a row of below-zero growth. At mid-week, at a special function where they were both guest and speaker, the Fitch Ratings people spoke.
Their official statement said, "Thailand's sovereign and financial institution ratings remain supported by fundamental strengths, although there remain downside risks such as relatively weak global growth and a challenging domestic operating environment." An unofficial translation from the original gobbledegook: "Thailand could be OK, or possibly not."
On Wednesday, economy tsar Pridiyathorn Devakula and Prime Minister Prayut Chan-o-cha tried to tip the odds in the country's favour.
The plan follows economic theory that in times of stalled, low or negative growth, government needs to invest — dump money, even print money, get money into circulation so people will spend and business (salivating at low interest rates) can't resist investing. The plan the premier and the cabinet approved had some radical wrinkles.
A farmer is working in a rice field in Kalasin. (Photo by Pattarapong Chatpattarasill)
Chief among them is a decision to (almost literally) throw money at millions of people and let them spend it how they want. Approximately 1.6 million rice farmers will, before New Year's Eve, get 15,000 baht, cash money, no strings attached. The government will toss cash money at another 1.8 million rice farmers who own less than 15 rai (2.4 hectares) of land, with the formula one rai equals 1,000 baht of largesse.
This will cost you 40 billion baht. But while it's the most jaw-dropping, widespread and legal give-away in the country's history, it's actually just a tiny part of the stimulus package unveiled by MR Pridiyathorn and his boss. It amounts to more than a third of a trillion baht of spending in a tiny timeframe.
Critics called it a "freebie" and pinned on it the most ignominious label of the day: "Populist."
Finance Minister Sommai Phasee was either outraged or seemed to be over the P-word. It's not populist, he explained, because it is a one-time, short-term measure that will have no impact on fiscal policy. Buying rice at a high price of 15,000 baht is populist; not buying rice for 15,000 baht is not populist.
In other words, then, it was a freebie.
MR Pridiyathorn gave it a different label: Crucial. Putting money in the hands of people with no money is an effective way of guaranteeing they will spend it and pump it into the economy, he said.
He's obviously right about that part of it. It was the other part that bothered many. Economist Narong Phetprasert of Chulalongkorn University put it this way: The handout does almost nothing to actually help rice farmers, does exactly nothing to help other farmers and ignores the real problems all farmers face — land and labour.
Top people in the Pheu Thai Party and the Thai Farmers Association were unimpressed. Handing farmers a 1,000 baht note for each rai of land they own up to a maximum of 15 fails to take into account the seasonal spending required by farmers. One tonne of decent rice right now costs 5,000 baht to produce, but sells for 4,000 baht. If the Pheu Thai programme was populist, the junta's programme is parsimonious.
If it works, it's the stuff of future economic and national legend. You know, like, "Remember back in 2557 when the Prayut government spent 364.5 billion baht and got this country moving again, right into the 21st century?"
If it flops, well, Prime Minister Prayut to his everlasting credit attempted no spin whatsoever. If it fails, these will be the words to remember, uttered by the prime minister as he introduced his stimulus plan: "We're tackling the issues no government has ever dared touch. If this backfires on us, so be it."