Myanmar's ruling Union Solidarity and Development Party (USDP) is getting ready for the forthcoming elections amid increased internal tension and uncertainty over its political future. "There is a very real danger of the party splitting," said a USDP MP on condition of anonymity.
So far the election date has not been announced, though the electoral commission head, Tin Aye, recently confirmed the election would be held in November and the date will be announced in August. But sources close to both the president and the electoral commissioner have strongly hinted that it will be held on Nov 21.
This weekend the USDP's central executive will meet to decide on the party's candidates for the elections, with Shwe Mann in charge — the acting chairman of the party and speaker of the lower house. President Thein Sein though remains the party's titular head — but because of his executive role he cannot take part in the daily affairs of the party, which are firmly in Shwe Mann's hands. These two are now bitter rivals, both vying to control the party and decide who will be nominated as the USDP's presidential nominee. This fight is threatening to tear the party asunder — with the main battle line, the party's nomination for president after the November polls.
The president is not directly elected by the voters — but is chosen by a joint sitting of the National Parliament — both Upper and Lower Houses. The two chambers and the military MPs, who make up 25% of the parliament under the current constitution, each nominate a vice-president and then the three stand in the president election. That makes the constituent MPs support crucial for the two USDP leaders, in their battle to control the party and decide who becomes the next president.
Although this weekend's party meeting will select the constituency candidates, it is unclear whether the party's presidential nominee is also on the agenda. Some senior USDP sources say it is. Under the party's rules, that would have to be confirmed by the next Congress. But just preparing the list of potential candidates for the elections has been troublesome enough, according to party insiders. "It's been a nightmare reviewing all those who want to fight the elections, and other new faces that have been encourage to join the fray," said one of the executive members involved in the pre-selection of the future MPs, confidentially.
Behind the struggle within the party over the constituency nominations, is the real battle, which will happen at the forthcoming party Congress. Shwe Mann is confident that he should be president this time round, according to sources close to the speaker. Analysts believe Shwe Mann's main support base is in the party's central committee and the members of lower house of parliament, of which he is speaker.
"Voices from within the parliament say he heads a strong faction in the party and has the edge," said Khin Zaw Win, an independent analyst who works closely with many members of parliament. Although this may be his power base — there are many MPs who remain ambivalent towards the speaker. Former academics, businessmen and diplomats — now parliamentarians — are not strong supporters; and given an alternative may support a more liberal, reformist faction in the party, if it was to emerge to challenge the current two factions within the USDP.
Thein Sein's strongest support is gathered around him in the executive. Many ministers in the president's cabinet have been urging him to seek re-election, arguing that the country needs continuity and stability. But some sources close to the president understand he is keen to step down and retire from politics altogether. The increasing public criticism, have made him feel that the country does not understand or appreciate what he has tried to do. Of course for the ministers, their futures are all closely tied up with Thein Sein — if he bows out, then that would also end their political careers.
But a new liberal reformist group is emerging inside the party — though it is still at a very nascent stage. This "third force" is gathering around the veteran politician and speaker of the upper house, Khin Aung Myint. He's a former soldier — with close ties to the former leader Than Shwe — a scholar and a writer. He has recently emerged into the limelight — making public statements and travelling abroad — most recently to South Korea, Belarus and Australia. "He's obviously making an effort to increase his public profile, presumably with the intention of throwing his hat into the ring for a more senior post in the next government," said Khine Win, a political commentator.
This faction is strongly anti-Shwe Mann. Khin Aung Myint's antipathy towards the lower house speaker is well known, but a rift has also developed between him and the president. The other key member of the new camp is the minister in the president's office Soe Maung, who seems to be a key force behind the potential putsch. Although this new grouping is beginning to put out tentative feelers, it is strongly embedded within the USDP. And more importantly has the active support of senior members of the military, according to sources close to the army leaders.
No matter what the central executive decides this weekend, the real battle will be at next month's Party Congress. "It will be like the 'night of the long knives'," said one of the supporters of the coup. Khin Aung Myint is currently favoured to come out on top, and take the chairmanship of the party. Sources close to him say he is not interested in becoming president, though they would not rule out him being a caretaker president. That means the next president may come from within the new USDP leadership — if it wins out at the Congress and overthrows Shwe Mann and his hardline faction.
Larry Jagan is a specialist on Myanmar and a former BBC World Service news editor for the region.