Peace talks lack direction

Peace talks lack direction

It has been more than four months since the government agreed to discuss the possibility of peace in the deep South with a separatist group. The Barisan Revolusi Nasional (BRN) has espoused violence against Thai authorities and citizens for five decades. The peace talks with the Malaysian group have yet to achieve anything. The government has yet to set a negotiating policy, and the talks will continue to meander until it does.

The talks with the BRN represent the first serious effort to consider an acceptable settlement in the southern region. But they have failed to win full government backing as national policy. Prime Minister Yingluck Shinawatra has said several times that she backs the talks, but has not put the peace talks on the national agenda. Her own cabinet ministers often seem split over the talks, or even confused.

The talks were arranged and initiated by the National Security Council (NSC), and by the Southern Border Provinces Administration Centre (SBPAC). NSC chief Paradorn Pattanatabut has become the official negotiator, with SBPAC secretary-general Thawee Sodsong his key deputy. This still must be considered an interim team. The NSC, by law and practice, advises the government, but never makes policy.

Lt Gen Paradorn has occasionally been out-manoeuvred in the unofficial jousting between the rival peace talks teams. This is partly because his nominal counterpart, Malaysian ustaz (Muslim scholar) Hassan Taib, has a simpler task.

Mr Hassan has a single negotiating lever, which is violence. If Thai authorities agree to his demands, he can supposedly end the killing, bombing and terrorism in the South. If not, the murders will continue.

Lt Gen Paradorn has a more difficult task, and a far more complicated set of tactics. The NSC chief is well equipped to hear and evaluate Mr Hassan's demands. But he does not have the authorisation to accept, reject or negotiate them. More importantly, the Thai peace talks team lacks the political ability and authority to match and counter Mr Hassan's propaganda. When the BRN begins a rant about "the Siamese colonialists", the Thai team is silent.

The political battle is an important part of any peace process. Mr Hassan and his apparently small, disciplined team of Malaysians appear to know this instinctively. They have used YouTube, social media, radio propaganda, press interviews and even black propaganda such as flying Malaysian flags and erecting billboards attacking the Thai government and nation.

Some analysts and observers have questioned whether a new NSC chief would change or even continue the talks with the BRN. Because of a court decision, it is possible Lt Gen Paradorn will be forced out of his job and replaced by a predecessor, Thawil Pliensri. This is where a senior political leader must step in _ Ms Yingluck or a clearly designated senior minister _ to make it clear that the talks are government policy, and do not depend on any personality.

For four months, Lt Gen Paradorn's team has been feeling out the BRN's side, and sending up trial balloons _ partial administrative independence for the South, a Ramadan ceasefire, cancellation of arrest warrants, and amnesty for imprisoned militants. This scattergun approach plays into the hands of the BRN. The peace talks have enormous potential for settling the decades-long violence in the deep South. But first, the government must take much stronger command of the process.

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