Ramadan row highlights rocky road to peace
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Ramadan row highlights rocky road to peace

It is no surprise that the seven new demands made earlier this week by Barisan Revolusi Nasional (BRN) representative Ustaz Hassan Taib were met with outright rejection from Thai authorities.

Mr Hassan made the demands, including the withdrawal of troops, as well as police and border patrol officers, from the three southernmost provinces and five districts in Songkhla in exchange for a curbing of violence during the holy month of Ramadan which is to begin some time next month.

The negotiator also demanded the deal be signed by Prime Minister Yingluck Shinawatra and parliament.

It remains unclear if, by saying "five districts in Songkhla", Mr Hassan made an intentional mistake.

Historically, only four districts in Songkhla, namely Thepha, Na Thawi, Saba Yoi and Chana, were under the rule of the old Patani Darussalam. Though Mr Hassan stopped short of naming the fifth district, Thai security officers and negotiators believe he meant Hat Yai, the economic city of the southern region.

Defence Minister Sukumpol Suwanatat, blurted out: "Unacceptable, that is far too much!" In his opinion, it reflects insincerity on the part of the separatist movement.

His view is shared by army chief Gen Prayuth Chan-ocha, who questioned if the public would accept the withdrawal of soldiers and authorities from the South.

Thai negotiators said other demands, including leave for Muslim soldiers and the closure of entertainment places, as well as a ban on alcohol sales during Ramadan are not easy to comply with but are still manageable.

The ongoing violence makes the Thai side doubt whether the BRN has the clout to control other insurgent factions.

"What we want is for Hassan to prove that he can order the RKK [Runda Kumpulan Kecil] to reduce the number of attacks, starting in this sacred Ramadan month. It is a good, auspicious time," Gen Niphat Thonglek said.

Both ACM Sukumpol and Gen Prayuth insisted the government will consider Mr Hassan's demands only after the number of attacks comes down during Ramadan. Mr Hassan let down the Thai side previously in April when the number of violent incidents escalated.

Now it's time for the negotiator to prove he is the real thing, not just an opportunist who is seeking publicity to gain acceptance in the BRN and the Muslim community.

Mr Hassan's choice of communication channel, YouTube, instead of going through Malaysia which serves as dialogue facilitator, has stirred suspicions.

"Hassan is like a foreign affairs minister, not an army commander or defence minister who can control the armed factions. Do we even know if Hassan can connect to the armed factions?" Gen Samrej Srirai, a member of the Thai dialogue team, said. It's believed that even though the government turned down all the demands, Mr Hassan will still keep the dialogue going. Only through the high-profile dialogue can he gain recognition for BRN in the Muslim world and in the general community.

The Thai side will not abandon the dialogue process, either. At least the process enables them to make an approach to people in the separatist movement. So the dialogue will continue, along with military operations.

Even though the chances of peace during Ramadan are slim, ACM Sukumpol said, the government will "keep the dialogue as an option".

ACM Sukumpol said the government could approach other factions apart from the BRN. "The BRN has to prove they have control over other militant groups, or we will turn to other factions for talks," he said.

The ongoing violence could be a signal from the "real" insurgents that the government has talked to the wrong faction; or that the militants do not want to talk but prefer to keep killing and carrying out acts of vengeance.

Some observers regard Mr Hassan's extreme demands as a tactic designed to abandon the dialogue.

"If Hassan promises [the violence will be curbed], but the killings still go on, he would lose face. So he has to think of extreme conditions _ something that will eventually be turned down," said an army officer who has participated in dialogues with southern militants over two decades.

There are also concerns some hard-core militants may want to intensify attacks during Ramadan, which begins early next month, out of a belief relating to jihad.

Even though the dialogue with the BRN might seem to offer little hope, we still have to continue with it as a solution to the southern strife.

Perhaps the most we can expect from the process is to ascertain whether the militants belong to the BRN as Thai intelligence agencies believe.

They might actually be a movement comprising people from the younger generation, not old veteran fighters.

The authorities have paid close attention to a group comprising male and female youth of the three southernmost provinces _ a faction allied with the RKK _ and militants under the so-called Patani Army. Intelligence sources say these factions have more than 30,000 members in each of the three southern provinces.

Intelligence officers keep a close watch not only on these young fighters, but also a group of Muslim students from the three provinces who are studying at Ramkhamhaeng University who have formed a group known as the PNYS (Patani-Narathiwat-Yala-Songkhla).

In fact, Thai officials never subscribed to the theory that the Ramkhamhaeng bombing in Bangkok on May 26 may be related to the southern insurgency. They arrested Idris Stapo, a militant from Narathiwat, and two others in the case.

Both police and the army keep ruling out a link between the southern insurgency and the Ramkhamhaeng bombing on the grounds the militants would not make a move outside their area of jurisdiction.

But some observers believe the authorities are denying the theory only to prevent the public panicking.

Actually, southern insurgents have travelled to Bangkok. Some come here to hide, some are studying, or buying materials for their missions.

Police and army intelligence officers know this. And they are following these people's movements. It's believed their operations in Bangkok and Hat Yai were aimed at pressuring the state to pay more attention to southern issues or to maximise their bargaining power.

It seems the road to peace is a long one, but we have to move on.


Wassana Nanuam is a senior news reporter covering military affairs for the Bangkok Post.

Wassana Nanuam

Senior news reporter

Wassana Nanuam is a senior news reporter covering military affairs for the Bangkok Post.

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