Fears of a 'false calm' in the South

Fears of a 'false calm' in the South

Officials warn insurgents regrouping

Hopeful signs of reduced violence in the South during the 40-day Ramadan fasting period have been tempered by fears that insurgents will use relaxed security measures to stock up on arms and explosives.

Security sources also believe that if the fasting period passes with a lower level of violence, it will strengthen the hand of Barisan Revolusi Nasional (BRN) at the negotiating table.

A Bangkok-based security officer described BRN's agreement to a ceasefire as a public relations stunt that would not benefit the state.

"If fewer attacks occur, that would be good for the people. But the insurgents will spend the time during the surveillance-free period to transport and relocate ammunition," he said.

Ramadan prayers in the Pattani Central Mosque (above) and across the deep South are for peace, but residents still are sceptical about the ceasefire. (AFP photo)

Many in the South welcomed the agreement and the initial signs of reduced violence.

Nimu Makajae, an Islamic religious leader in Yala, said the ceasefire was good news for Ramadan which started on Wednesday. Muslims could now observe the fasting period and prayer in peace.

"We will also support the good things and wait and see if the ceasefire can really hold," Mr Nimu said.

The government and the BRN agreed to the 40-day ceasefire to show their desire to end the southern insurgency.

The move marks a milestone in the push to end the nearly decade-long conflict, which has claimed more than 5,700 lives since 2004.

The "violence-free month" began on Wednesday and will end on Aug 18, according to Malaysian security official Ahmad Zamzamin bin Hashim.

Malaysia, the facilitator of peace talks between Thai authorities and the BRN, released a statement in Kuala Lumpur on Friday to announce the ceasefire.

All of Narathiwat, Pattani and Yala provinces and five districts of Songkhla - Na Thawi, Sadao, Chana, Thepha and Saba Yoi - are included in the agreement.

Pol Col Thawee Sodsong, secretary-general of the Southern Border Provinces Administrative Centre, said the peace process was continuing step by step and will make further headway.

All sides involved must be patient as many positive signs were emerging in the region, Mr Thawee said.

But a security source said some agencies have a different take on the ceasefire.

They believe that if the ceasefire can really hold, with significantly reduced violence, it will give the BRN more bargaining power as it will show the separatist group is able to control insurgents in the field.

The source said the BRN's agreement to the pact was unexpected, given that the government had refused to accept its earlier conditions for a ceasefire.

It was possible the BRN had planned the whole affair in advance to gain a bargaining edge, the source said.

The source noted that the ceasefire was announced by the Malaysian facilitator, while no BRN representative appeared to make the declaration.

"Declaring the truce is therefore face-saving for all sides, particularly Malaysia," another military source said.

Pattani senator Anusart Suwanmongkol said the BRN had sent a positive signal, although it remains to be seen if the ceasefire will succeed.

He noted that there was an unusual surge in violence in the lead-up to the announcement, particularly the bomb attack that wounded eight soldiers aboard a truck.

He suspected the BRN would use violence as a bargaining chip, which was unacceptable. If the BRN can control violence during Ramadan, but allowed a surge in attacks in the lead-up, this could indicate a tactic to get what they want, Mr Anusart said.

"The ceasefire is commendable, but if we are already participating in a peace process, it should be observed every month so the peace talks can proceed smoothly," Mr Anusart said.

He said if the BRN is capable of halting violence, it should continue to do so because the lives of innocent people must not be put at risk.

Working Group on Justice for Peace chairwoman Angkhana Neelapaijit Saturday questioned the credibility of the ceasefire, saying it did not carry the emblem of the BRN and was not signed by a representative.

Moreover, no representatives of the government or the BRN were present during the announcement of the ceasefire.

Boonsom Thongsriprai, chairman of the Confederation of Teachers in the Three Southern Border Provinces, also welcomed the ceasefire. But he doubted whether the BRN could control some insurgent groups.

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