Millions of livestock have perished as climate change exacerbates impacts of extreme winter weather in Mongolia, crippling nomadic communities that rely on the animals for income and threatening wider economic damage.
The frequency of natural disasters in Mongolia has doubled over the past two decades and climate change is contributing to land degradation, desertification and water scarcity, which makes livestock less fit to survive harsh winters, according to the United Nations.
Extreme events known as dzud, which are characterised by below-freezing temperatures, strong winds and heavy snow and ice, can wipe out entire herds of goats, sheep and horses. The country has experienced six dzuds over the past decade and this winter brought the highest snowfall in nearly a half century.
The most recent dzud struck 20 out of the country’s 21 provinces killing 5.9 million animals, or roughly 9% of the total as of the end of last year.
“This is all a big vicious cycle that is now threatening livelihoods of thousands of herders, taking significant toll on the country’s economy and also threatening century old nomadic lifestyle,” said Matilda Dimovska, The UN Development Programme resident representative in Mongolia.
Temperatures in Mongolia have increased by 2.5 degrees Celsius over the past 80 years, increasing droughts and reducing pasture growth. This limits summer grazing, when animals build up critical reserves of fat needed to endure severe winter conditions. Temperature fluctuations during winter months are causing thawing and refreezing cycles that create ice barriers to food.
Agriculture accounts for just 10% of the Mongolia’s gross domestic product, but its pastoral livestock production system provides livelihoods for more than 80% of the rural population and is viewed as an economic pillar. Nomadic herdsmen also hold cultural importance and are central to Mongol identity.
The extreme winter conditions could also have a ripple effect on the wider economy, Bank of Mongolia governor Lkhagvasuren Byadran said last month during an economic briefing.
“Due to the conditions of the dzud, there is a risk that the loan repayment of the herdsmen will fail, and the risk of solvency problems will arise,” he said in a statement.
What’s more, the harsh conditions preventing grazing in fields are also causing herders to buy animal feed, which can boost the price for grains. Mongolia reported a 7% increase in the consumer price index in February from a year earlier.
The price for fodder has increased, or doubled in some areas, according to Munguntsetseg Tsend-ayush, an adviser to the Eeltei Baylag Cooperative Network in Mongolia that organises herders.
Although losses vary across the country, herders have seen as much as 80% of their livestock wiped out in some provinces, according to Munguntsetseg, who said more deaths could come in the volatile weeks of spring ahead.
The extra costs for animal feed and supplies could also bear on one export of note: raw and processed cashmere used in luxury garments. Mongolia is among the world’s largest suppliers of the material, and exported about 6,450 tonnes of unprocessed and cashmere down last year.