Recap: Global stock markets rose last week as investors now believe the US Federal Reserve will not raise interest rates until July at the earliest, given concerns about the market impact of the June 23 UK referendum on EU membership. Poor US job figures for May also weakened the case for a rate hike. A recovery in oil prices also lifted sentiment. Thai shares advanced on buying of energy and bank blue chips.
The SET index moved in a range of 1,415.73 and 1,437.62 points and closed at 1,436.43, up 1.8% from the previous week, in heavy turnover averaging 50.93 billion baht a day. Foreign investors were net buyers of 8.25 billion baht, institutions 1.13 billion and brokers 5.91 billion, while retail investors pulled 15.29 billion out of the market.
Big movers: Top gainer PTL surged 53.7% to 10.3 baht, while top loser PPM sank 50% to 2.20 baht. MAX led in volume, steady at 0.15 baht. Leading in turnover were IVL, down 0.74% to 33.50 baht; PTT, off 0.33% to 306 baht; and AOT, down 0.76% to 390 baht.
Newsmakers: The Fed acknowledged mounting concern over the potential economic fallout from Britain's vote on whether to leave the European Union, making a rate increase at the June 14-15 meeting even less likely than it already was. Fed governor Daniel Tarullo was among those saying the Brexit vote was a factor he would consider. The referendum result could also influence Fed moves at its July 26-27 meeting
Japanese factory output rose unexpectedly in April as earthquakes in the southern part of the country appeared to have had minimal impact on production. Household spending also fell less than expected, and job availability hit a 24-year high. Factory output rose 0.3% in April from the previous month, following a 3.8% gain in March. The jobless rate was steady at 3.2% and the jobs-to-applicants ratio rose to 1.34, the highest since November 1991.
The European Central Bank held key interest rates at record low, but made no announcement regarding Greece despite speculation that it might offer help to its cash-strapped banks.
India reported economic growth for fiscal 2015-16 ending March 31 of 7.6%, up from 7.2% the year before and helped by a 7.9% gain in the final quarter.
Australian GDP growth in the quarter to March 31 topped expectations at 3.1% year-on-year, the best in three years. That kept the economy on track to meet the central bank's forecast of 2.5% to 3.5% for the fiscal year that ends on June 30.
Opec members meeting in Vienna failed to reach an agreement for a new output ceiling, pushing down world prices briefly. However, the market rallied as data showed US crude stockpiles fell for a 12th week, and Brent crude briefly traded above $50 a barrel.
Headline inflation is on track to reach the low end of the target later this year, says Bank of Thailand governor Veerathai Santiprabhob. The target is 2.5% plus or minus 1.5% on average, the same as in 2015. Consumer prices based on a basket of 450 products and services inched up 0.46% year-on-year in May, rising for the second consecutive month.
Deputy Prime Minister Somkid Jatusripitak used a speech in Japan to confirm that Thailand wanted to join the US-based Trans Pacific Partnership (TPP) trade pact as soon as it is open for new membership.
TMB Bank made an about-face by restoring its savings interest rate to 0.125%, less than two days after a cut to zero sparked a public outcry.
PTT Plc is reviving the plan it considered two years ago to list its oil retailing and marketing business on the stock market to raise fresh funds. A feasibility study is expected to be finished in the third quarter.
PTT Exploration and Production Plc (PTTEP) says it is ready to join the auction for the Bongkot petroleum block to continue its production there. Energy policymakers plan to call bids for licences for the Bongkot gas field operated by PTTEP, and Erawan, operated by Chevron. The licences are due to expire in 2022 and 2023.
Standard & Poor's downgraded the long-term corporate credit rating of ADVANC to BBB+ from A-, in light of the large debt-funded payment that the mobile market leader has committed to make for its new 4G licence.
JAS Mobile Broadband has been told to pay a fine of almost 200 million baht to the national telecom regulator by June 16 for its failure to pay the first instalment of its 900-megahertz licence fee. The default resulted in a new auction for the 4G frequency, for which ADVANC was the sole bidder.
AIA Group and Britain's Prudential Plc are among the insurers considering bids to buy at least 49% of the US$3-billion insurance unit of Siam Commercial Bank, say market sources. A successful sale of the stake in SCB Life Assurance would also allow the new partner to sell insurance through the branch network of SCB, Thailand's third-biggest lender. The sale process is expected to get under way in the third quarter.
Coming up this week: Euro-zone first-quarter GDP is due tomorrow. China's trade balance in May and Japan's first-quarter GDP will be released on Wednesday.
Stocks to watch: Thanachart Securities has buy recommendations on stocks expected to outperform the market in the second quarter. They are GL, CPF, BCH, GSPC, GLOBAL, KCE, IRPC, SCC and SPALI.
DBS Vickers Securities (Thailand) recommends high-dividend stocks -- ADVANC, INTUCH, TMT, JASIF, DIF, CPNRF, SC, QH, SIRI and BCP.
Technical view: DBS Vickers tips support at 1,380 with resistance at 1,440 points. Thanachart Securities sees support at 1,418 and resistance at 1,465 points.
