When the American poet Ralph Waldo Emerson said, "The earth laughs in flowers", he didn't have the northern Indian state of Uttarakhand in mind. But the premature blooming of rhododendrons in parts of the Indian Himalayan region is putting frowns on the faces of scientists, who believe it could be linked to climate change.
Rhododendron flowers, found at altitudes ranging from 1,500 to 3,600 metres, bloomed in January this year instead of March-April, their normal time. That has prompted researchers at the Uttarakhand state Forest Training Institute to launch a study of various flora and fauna to find out if any provide indicators of changes in the climate.
"The study will give us tenable and concrete answers whether certain phenomena are happening due to a rise in temperatures," said Sanjeev Chaturvedi, head of the research unit. "Besides the early blooming of flowers, certain tree species like cheer pine are moving upwards. Moreover, snow leopards have been seen at lower altitudes."
RC Kandpal, assistant silviculturist in the forest department, said certain trees would be kept under observation for long periods, with record weekly temperature and humidity data recorded.
Researchers from the Uttarakhand state Forest Training Institute are keeping trees under observation and recording weekly temperature and humidity data. Photo: Narendra Kaushik
Researchers have earmarked rhododendron trees at three places in Nainital, a famous hill station about 300 kilometres northeast of Delhi. Juice made from rhododendron flowers is a popular beverage in the Himalayan region.
Mr Chaturvedi, a Magsaysay Award winner for his anti-corruption work, said environmental security was one of the three dimensions -- defence and economy are the others -- of security and its neglect could threaten agricultural productivity, the gene pool, biodiversity and the very survival of human beings in the Himalayan region.
"Along with coastal areas, the Himalayan region will be the first causality of an increase in temperatures," he told Asia Focus. "Almost all rivers originate from glaciers in Uttarakhand. The glaciers are receding backwards. This is irreversible. We cannot survive on a stand-alone basis" without mitigation and adaptation strategies.
Apart from changes in growth patterns of flowers and trees and habitation patterns of animals, Uttarakhand is witnessing rapid deforestation, fast-spreading forest fires and the drying up of water springs and consecutive droughts.
In a vulnerability risk assessment conducted by United Nations Development Programme (UNDP) last year, it was found that discharges from 500 water supply sources including springs, streams and ponds had declined by more than 50%.
The UNDP has launched a project called "Strengthening State Strategies for Climate Action" in collaboration with the Uttarakhand state government to rehabilitate the dried springs. It is currently doing geohydrological mapping. Calling climate change a "very serious threat", Rashmi Bajaj, the state project manager of the UNDP, said she hoped the project would show results in one year.
According to Ms Bajaj, 260,000 springs account for 90% of the drinking water sources in Uttarakhand, and 20% of the state's 15,165 villages face problems relating to drinking water supply. The water scarcity is identified as a major reason for large-scale outmigration. "People come down from the hills to Dehradun, Haridwar and Uddham Singh Nagar for their livelihood," Ms Bajaj noted.
The US Global Change Research Program and the World Resources Institute (WRI) have selected Uttarakhand and Madhya Pradesh states for a pilot project called "Partnership for Resilience and Preparedness" (Prep), which will use data to empower communities to build climate resilience.
RN Jha, an officer with the Climate Change and Environment Department of Uttarakhand, said the state was developing a knowledge portal to assist in policymaking and development work and share data with global communities. The Indian Institute of Tropical Meteorology in Pune would work in tandem with the other Prep partners.
Ashish Tiwari, an assistant professor in the forestry department of Kumaun University in Nainital, said average temperatures had had risen by over one degree Celsius in recent years due to climate change. "Winters are getting milder. There have been no winter rains in the last two or three years. Snowfall has been reduced," he told Asia Focus.
The Indian Himalayan region includes Jammu & Kashmir, Himachal Pradesh and Uttarakhand states in the north, and Manipur, Mizoram, Nagaland, Sikkim, Assam, Arunachal Pradesh, Tripura and hilly regions of West Bengal in the country's northeast. Agriculture, forests, biodiversity, energy, water resources, disaster management and health management, livestock, transport, horticulture, infrastructure and tourism are all considered vulnerable to climate change in the region.
Anumita Roychoudhary, executive director with the privately supported Centre for Science and Environment (CSE), said the early flowering of rhododendrons and the shifting of apple orchards in Himachal Pradesh to higher altitudes were symptoms of deeper changes in the climate. India, she added, would need serious mitigation and adaptation strategies to deal with this.
A study published in Current Science, a respected science journal, said that the Himalayas, the world's highest mountain range, were getting warmer. It warned that rising trends in liquid precipitation would influence Himalayan glaciers adversely and "frequency of hazards such as avalanches and landslides is expected to increase during late winter".
Earlier this month, HSBC identified India as the most vulnerable country to climate change followed by Pakistan, the Philippines and Bangladesh.
The bank, in an assessment of 67 countries based on vulnerability to physical impacts of climate change, sensitivity to extreme weather events, exposure to energy transition risks and ability to respond to climate change, warned that agricultural incomes could go down in India due to declines in rainfall.
Prime Minister Narendra Modi has identified climate change as one of the three greatest threats (terrorism and protectionism being the others) to civilisation. Earlier this month, while welcoming French President Emmanuel Macron in New Delhi, Mr Modi presented a 10-point action plan against climate change that includes making affordable solar technology available to all nations.
India plans to generate 175 Gigawatts of electricity from renewable sources including 100GW from solar and 60GW from wind by 2022.
