Hopeful investors await Fed chief's comments

Recap: Global stock markets rose yesterday as investors awaited a speech by US Federal Reserve Governor Jerome Powell for hints of future monetary policy direction, while minutes from the Fed's July meeting showed policymakers were reluctant to make aggressive rate cuts.

The SET index moved in a range of 1,621.85 and 1,646.74 points before closing at 1,646.68, up 0.9% from the previous week, in turnover averaging 57.92 billion baht a day.

Institutional investors were net buyers of 10.2 billion baht. Foreign investors were net sellers of 8 billion baht, retail investors sold 1.1 billion and brokerage firms offloaded 1 billion worth of shares.

Newsmakers: US President Donald Trump has tried to reassure markets about the risk of the US falling into a recession by saying the economy is doing "tremendously well", while proclaiming he is the "Chosen One" to tussle with China over trade.

• French President Emmanuel Macron says he supports further talks to avoid Britain crashing out of the EU without a deal on Oct 31 but rejects major concessions. Speaking after talks with UK Prime Minister Boris Johnson, he said the so-called Irish backstop was "indispensable" and said all talks had to be based on the withdrawal deal negotiated by Mr Johnson's predecessor Theresa May.
• Italy's president has given the centre-left Democrats until Tuesday to form a coalition with the anti-establishment Five Star Movement, after Giuseppe Conte resigned as PM when the anti-migrant League party withdrew support for the shaky coalition.
• Japan's politically sensitive trade surplus with the US grew more than 15% in July as negotiators from the two countries prepare to restart talks over a free trade deal.
• The second trial of former Malaysian prime minister Najib Razak linked to the multibillion-dollar looting of the state investment fund 1MDB has been delayed until next week to allow his first trial to end.
• Huawei says Washington's three-month reprieve from a ban on US firms selling to it is not enough, and would not change the fact that the Chinese tech giant has been "treated unjustly".
• Singapore stocks declined yesterday as authorities trimmed full-year inflation forecast towards the lower half of their guidance range. Core inflation eased to its slowest pace in more than three years in July, in further evidence of a weakened economic condition.
• Thailand's slow economic growth in the second quarter, logged at 2.3% year-on-year and 0.6% quarter-to-quarter, has prompted the National Economic and Social Development Commission to lower its forecast for 2019 growth to between 2.7% and 3.2% from an earlier range of 3.3% to 3.8%.
  
• The cabinet on Tuesday gave the green light to a 316-billion-baht stimulus package, covering subsidies for the poor, domestic tourism incentives and soft loans for farmers. The Bank of Thailand estimates the measures will lift growth by less than a half a percentage point.
• Exports rose unexpectedly for the first time in five months in July, up 4.3% year-on-year, largely boosted by higher shipments of gold as a safe-haven asset.
• The Bank of Thailand is still concerned that the baht's gain relative to trading partners' currencies could affect the economy to a larger degree amid intensifying trade tensions, according to minutes of its Aug 7 rate-setting meeting.
• The government has asked the Board of Investment to devise a "relocation package" for foreign investors wishing to shift from China to Thailand as a result of the Sino-US trade dispute, hoping to counter the slump in exports and foreign investment.
• The government has endorsed the price guarantee scheme for rice worth 21 billion baht, a move to help cushion farmers from falling rice prices. Farmers will receive a minimum of 10,000 to 15,000 baht a tonne for paddy depending on the grade.
• State agencies are studying the feasibility of allowing 3,000 rai of reclaimed coastland, adjacent to the Laem Chabang seaport in Chon Buri, to be used by ExxonMobil for its 330-billion-baht expansion project. Local environmental activists have petitioned to block the plan.
• The local automotive industry is bracing for a slowdown because of tighter loan approvals by banks and the impact of US-China trade tensions, says the Federation of Thai Industries.
• Affected by global tensions and the strong baht, foreign tourist arrivals grew only 1.4% year-on-year in the first seven months to 19.7 million, prompting the Tourism and Sports Ministry to shave its target from 41.3 million to 40.2 million.
• Asean and six dialogue partners have vowed to wrap up talks on the Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership (RCEP) by this November as planned -- four years behind schedule. Trade ministers from 16 countries are due to meet on Sept 7-8 in Bangkok.
• The Public Debt Management Office estimates the country's average ratio of public debt to GDP at 46.7% over the next five years, assuming an average budget deficit of 500 billion baht a year.
• BTS Group Holdings Plc (BTS) has acquired a 7% stake in the entertainment company RS Group for 1 billion baht, a move expected to generate multiple new business opportunities and provide a foundation for expansion of multi-platform commerce.
• Bangkok Commercial Asset Management, which is 99.9% owned by the Bank of Thailand's Financial Institutions Development Fund, is preparing to go public by issuing up to 1.77 billion shares in an IPO after years of delay.
• Bangkok Bank (BBL), the country's third largest lender by assets, wants to tighten credit card spending by self-employed workers, online vendors and small business operators after bad loans for these customer groups climbed.
• Tata Motors Thailand plans to keep a business presence in the country despite ceasing local assembly in the financial year that ended in March.

Coming up: Germany will release the August Ifo business climate survey on Monday and the US will release July durable goods orders. Germany will release second-quarter GDP growth on Tuesday and a consumer confidence update on Wednesday.

• Japan will release August consumer confidence, France will release second-quarter final GDP growth and the euro zone will announce August business confidence on Thursday. Germany will release August preliminary inflation and the US will announce the second estimate of second-quarter GDP.
• Britain will release August consumer confidence on Friday and the US will announce July personal income. Italy, India and Canada will announce second-quarter GDP growth the same day. China will release the August manufacturing PMI on Saturday.

Stocks to watch: Yuanta Securities Thailand recommends large-cap stocks with potential to generate profits in the second half. Its picks are ADVANC, INTUCH and CPF.

Asia Plus Securities' picks include BCH, DRT and STA. The recommended investment strategy for this week is to hold stocks at 40% of the portfolio, fixed income at 35%, money market funds at 15% and cash 10%.

Technical view: RHB Securities Thailand sees support at 1,620 points and resistance at 1,660. Maybank Kim Eng Securities Thailand sees support at 1,620 and resistance at 1,670.