Recap: Emerging market equity trading was mostly flat yesterday as volumes thinned ahead of the Christmas holidays, while the Turkish lira firmed after falling for five straight sessions in the wake of worsening relations between Ankara and Washington.
The SET index moved between 1,543.22 and 1,576.50 points before closing at 1,572.92, down marginally from 1,573.91 the week before, in turnover averaging 56.84 billion baht a day.
Brokerage firms were net buyers of 4.8 billion baht and institutional investors purchased 3.5 billion. Foreign investors were net sellers of 6.3 billion and retail investors sold 1.85 billion baht in shares.
Newsmakers: US President Donald Trump was impeached by the US House of Representatives on Wednesday, only the third American chief executive to be formally charged under the constitution's ultimate remedy for high crimes and misdemeanours. He will now face a trial in the Senate where the Republican majority will acquit him.
- Russia has vowed to complete construction of a major gas pipeline under the Baltic Sea, despite approval by the US Senate of sanctions that have also angered European states led by Germany.
- The US-China trade deal is "remarkable" in scope but it won't solve all the problems between the two giant economies, the top US negotiator said. Meanwhile, the United States quietly expelled two Chinese embassy officials in September after they drove onto a sensitive military base in Virginia.
- The pound has fallen back to where it was before the UK election amid fresh concerns over a no-deal Brexit. Prime Minister Boris Johnson is now seeking to outlaw extending the Brexit transition period beyond the end of 2020, as he prepares to put the EU divorce deal before MPs.
- Boeing will temporarily halt production of its troubled 737 Max airliner in January, as recertification of the jet could still be months away. Production had continued despite the model being grounded for nine months after two deadly crashes.
- The fiscal 2020 budget bill is expected to receive parliamentary approval early next year as the coalition government has sufficient votes from lawmakers to pass the bill, says Kobsak Pootrakool, the Prime Minister's Office Minister.
- Bangkok Commercial Asset Management (BAM) has staged the country's second largest IPO by market capitalisation this year, with shares finishing at the offering price of 17.50 baht on Monday.
- The SEC and 12 organisations have agreed to set up a new equity exchange to trade shares of small and medium-sized enterprises and startups to facilitate access to fund-raising in the capital market.
- The Capital Market Supervisory Board has approved extending the night trading session for derivatives products, specifically gold, to a 3am close, possibly starting in the first quarter of 2020.
- The Bank of Thailand on Wednesday left its policy rate unchanged at a record low 1.25%, but offered a grim outlook by cutting its economic growth forecast to 2.5% for this year and 2.8% next year as the US-China trade spat continues to hurt exports.
- A draft bill on the e-business tax, a levy on foreign-based online platform operators earning income in Thailand, is expected to be enforced next year, says the Revenue Department.
- A tax reform committee has agreed to revoke the VAT exemption for online purchases worth up to 1,500 baht from vendors outside Thailand that are shipped by mail to provide a level playing field with local operators.
- Investment research should be classified as R&D and receive corporate tax deduction incentives, says the Federation of Thai Capital Market Organizations.
- Household debt in the second half of this year has slowed from the first half thanks to weak housing demand, excess supply in the property market and tighter lending from financial institutions.
- Despite the stronger baht, transfers of condo units by foreigners rose 1.8% year-on-year in the first nine months of this year.
- The government has extended the anti-dumping duty on cold-reduced carbon steel, both coiled and uncoiled, from China, Vietnam and Taiwan for the next five years to curb supply from the three markets.
- Advertising spending on the internet is likely to exceed TV spending within three years as digital disruption takes a toll on TV viewership, says Media Intelligence.
- The National Broadcasting and Telecommunications Commission will consider removing the 700-megahertz range from the 5G spectrum auction scheduled for February, reducing the number of ranges to just three.
- Car sales from January to November fell 1.1% year-on-year to 918,267 units after a sixth straight monthly sales decrease, according to the Federation of Thai Industries.
- The Excise Department proposes a 1,000-baht charge on electric vehicle batteries to finance tracking battery demolition or recycling, with refunds paid after car owners deliver the battery.
- The hotel oversupply on Koh Samui has dragged down the occupancy rate in the quarter to Dec 20 to 30% from 50% in the same period last year, says the Tourism Association of Koh Samui.
- PTT Plc has named Auttapol Rerkpiboon as its next president and chief executive, effective from May 13.
- SCG Packaging (SCGP) has submitted an IPO filing to list on the SET, offering less than one-third of its shares to the public as it aims to expand domestically and abroad.
- IRPC Plc wants to emphasise specialty petrochemical products as the continuing US-China trade war pressures demand for commodity-grade products worldwide.
- Krungthai Bank (KTB) plans to exploit the central bank's easing of loan-loss provisions under Thai Financial Reporting Standards 9 (TFRS 9), which enables banks to set aside reserves of 1% for new loans over the course of three years, starting from 2020.
Coming up: Canada will release October GDP data on Monday and the US will announce November new home sales.
- The Bank of Japan will release its monetary policy meeting minutes on Tuesday, with the US releasing November durable goods orders.
- Japan will announce November housing starts on Thursday, France will release November unemployment and the US will release December initial jobless claims. On Friday, the Bank of Japan will release economic data including November unemployment, industrial production and retail sales.
Stocks to watch: UOB Kay Hian Securities Thailand recommends a portfolio with 30% cash and 70% equities, focusing on global cyclical stocks such as energy, petrochemicals and banking. Suggested picks are AMATA, EASTW, SPRC and BBL.
- Capital Nomura Securities recommends cyclical plays including PTT, PTTGC, SCC, TOP and BCP. Firms expected to gain from higher food prices are CPF, TVO, GFPT and KSL. Value plays include BBL, SCB, KBANK and KKP, while equities poised to gain from an upgrade in Thailand's sovereign credit rating outlook are BBL, SCB, KBANK, MINT, CPF and PTTEP.
Technical view: DBS Vickers Securities Thailand sees support at 1,530 points and resistance at 1,600. Maybank Kim Eng sees support at 1,559 and resistance at 1,590.
