Equities revive as US and Iran pull back from brink

Recap: Global stock markets on Friday reversed the losses seen earlier in the week and safe-haven asset prices pulled back after an apparent de-escalation of US-Iran tensions eased concern about global economic fallout.

The SET index moved in a range of 1,555.75 and 1,585.56 points before closing at 1,580.63, down 0.9% from the previous week, in heavy trade averaging 63.37 billion baht.

Foreign investors were net buyers of 2.1 billion baht, brokerage firms purchased 1.7 billion and retail investors bought 893 million worth of shares. Institutional investors were net sellers of 4.7 billion baht.

Newsmakers: American and other officials say their intelligence indicates that Iranian missiles, probably fired by accident amid heightened tensions with the United States, destroyed a Ukrainian jetliner and killed all 176 people on board this week. Iran denied the reports and said all sides should wait for analysis of the plane's flight recorder.

• The downing of the Ukrainian plane came just a day after President Trump said Iran appeared to be "standing down" after retaliatory missile strikes on US troop bases in Iraq. Those strikes were in response to the US drone strike that killed Qassem Soleimani, one of Iran's top military figures.
• Gold rose to a six-year high of US$1,588 an ounce on Monday and Brent crude spiked to US$69.21 per barrel on Wednesday, amid worries about US-Iranian tensions. Prices of both commodities later eased back on profit-taking.
• Luo Huining, Beijing's new top envoy to Hong Kong, said he hoped the protest ravaged city would "return to the right path" as he took up his post on Monday.
• Indonesian President Joko Widodo has asked Japan to step up investment in fisheries and energy in some of its South China Sea islands following a stand-off with China in waters that China claims in the area.
• Recovery in a handful of countries will boost global growth slightly this year but the outlook is riddled with potential pitfalls that could derail this tepid upswing, according to the World Bank.
• The Japanese automaker Nissan vowed to continue pursuing legal action against its bail-jumping former chief Carlos Ghosn for "various acts of misconduct". The Japanese government, meanwhile, fought back after Ghosn blasted the country's legal system in a press conference in Beirut. Justice Minister Masako Mori said his criticisms of the legal system were "abstract, unclear or baseless".
• Amazon has unveiled plans to be a bigger player in the auto sector, announcing partnerships that will put its Fire TV platform in vehicles and offer more services through its Alexa digital assistant.
• Thailand's 12-month trade surplus with the US has exceeded $20 billion, increasing its chance of being included on the US Treasury's watchlist of currency manipulators, although the central bank governor said dialogue is ongoing.
• The baht will reverse course after a torrid 2019 and end this year down 11% against the US dollar, according to an economist with Netherlands-based Rabobank, who picks the Indian rupee to surprise markets with its renewed strength.
• Energy Minister Sontirat Sontijirawong plans to beef up preventive measures to offset a potential crude oil shortage and the recent jump in oil prices caused by the dispute between the US and Iran last weekend.
• Easing concerns over external uncertainties are expected to lend a boost to the first-half stock market outlook, but the 2020 US presidential election and global financial strains could obscure investment appetite in the second half, says SCB Securities.
• Leading business associations on Wednesday projected economic growth of between 2.5% and 3% this year in the face of a global slowdown and volatile exchange rates amid heightened Iran-US tensions.
• The Commerce Ministry's Internal Trade Department says it will introduce measures to alleviate the hardship of consumers who are likely to face rising prices for farm products due to severe dry weather this year.
• Rice export prices held steady this week but severe dry conditions are driving expectations of a rise in Thai prices. Benchmark 5% broken rice prices were quoted at $425 to $435, largely unchanged from before the holidays, but still the highest level since June 2018.
• The Bank of Thailand is requiring financial institutions to adjust prepayment charges for small and medium-sized enterprises (SMEs) and personal loans and late-payment fees for SMEs, personal and mortgage loans based on actual costs, with immediate effect.
• The central bank says it stands ready to further ease the loan-to-value regulations governing mortgage lending in areas that are considered harmful to homebuyers.
• The cabinet on Tuesday approved a new aid package for SMEs, based on each segments needs and characteristics.
• Deputy Prime Minister Somkid Jatusripitak has told the Eastern Economic Corridor Office to speed up contract signings with private companies for the three remaining megaprojects by March.
• The Energy Policy and Planning Office forecasts the country's energy consumption in 2020 will rise 1.8% to 2.78 million barrels of oil equivalent per day, in line with GDP and demand.
• Domestic demand in the steel market is expected to grow 3-4% this year to 18.9 million tonnes thanks to a boost from the construction and automotive sectors, says the Iron and Steel Industry Club under the Federation of Thai Industries.
• The Industrial Works Department expects the number of newly registered factories to rise 10% to 4,817 and investment value to climb 3.4% to 500 billion baht in 2020, driven by the government's investment incentives and megaprojects in the Eastern Economic Corridor.
• Housing market growth in 2020 will increase 2% if loan-to-value regulations on second mortgages are eased, says Krungthai Compass Research Centre.
• The Tourism Authority of Thailand is calm but cautious about the mysterious viral outbreak in China's Hubei province as Chinese New Year approaches.
• PTT Plc has denied reports that its retail subsidiary PTT Oil and Retail Business Plc (PTTOR) would bid for the operations of Tesco Plc in Thailand and Malaysia.
• Nissan Motor Thailand has confirmed the beginning of an almost 11-billion-baht investment to produce hybrid vehicles with its e-Power technology this year at facilities in Samut Prakan.
• Coming up: SET-listed financial institutions will begin releasing their fourth-quarter earnings next week, starting with Tisco Bank and Siam Commercial Bank on Monday and Friday, respectively.
• For macroeconomic data, Britain will release November trade data on Monday and the US will announce December inflation on Tuesday.
• On Wednesday, Germany will release 2019 GDP data and Britain will announce December inflation. The US will release December retail sales on Thursday.
• Australia will release the January consumer confidence index on Friday, with China releasing fourth-quarter GDP data the same day.

Stocks to watch: Capital Nomura Securities recommends SET100 stocks for which prices have fallen less than 20%. Suggested picks are PTG, PRM, TASCO, PSL, AAV, IRPC, AMATA, WHA, STPI, EPG, BGC, KBANK, KCE, TOP, MINT, SCB, SCC, JMT, BBL, ERW, DELTA, BCP, BCH and STEC. Stocks poised to benefit from measures to curb the baht's strength are CPF, GFPT, KCE and HANA.

• SCB Securities recommends energy stocks as oil prices are sensitive to geopolitical conflicts. It recommends are ESSO, SPRC, IRPC, TOP, BCP, PTTEP, PTTGC and PTT.

Technical view: DBS Vickers Securities Thailand sees support at 1,540 points and resistance at 1,600. SCB Securities sees support at 1,550 and resistance at 1,597.