
The tourism sector is heading for its first revenue contraction in a decade as Chinese tourists, the biggest source market, remain under lockdown amid fears of a pandemic.
The coronavirus outbreak led the Tourism Authority of Thailand (TAT) to chop the 2020 revenue target to 2.91 trillion baht, after battling many negative factors since the beginning of this year.
The revised target is 3.4% lower than the 3.01 trillion baht in tourism revenue logged in 2019 and weaker than the previous target of 3.16 trillion baht.
TAT governor Yuthasak Supasorn said the revised target reflects the impact of the virus, with all of the agency's overseas and domestic offices using statistics and forward trends for their estimates.
He expects the National Economic and Social Development Council (NESDC) to soon adjust its tourism forecast, which will not be far from the TAT's new target.
The decline in revenue is mostly due to the downturn in international receipts, which stand at 1.78 trillion baht, down 7.7% from 1.93 trillion baht last year.
Before China's ban on group travel, the NESDC estimated that Thailand would receive 41.8 million international arrivals this year, slightly higher than the TAT's previous target of 40.8 million.
The TAT has reduced its estimate to just 36 million travellers.
"Some 36 million tourists is the highest number we might achieve this year," Mr Yuthasak said. "If the situation gets worse, the figure may plunge to 35 million."
But the agency is maintaining its targets for the domestic market, which should generate 1.13 trillion baht from 172 million trips nationwide this year -- though the coronavirus has started to impact schoolchildren as field trips are cancelled to avoid possible infection in busy areas.
A clearer scenario for Thai tourism should be seen after Feb 20, said Vichit Prakobgosol, president of the Association of Thai Travel Agents.
By then, nearly all Chinese travellers will have returned to the mainland and passed the 14-day incubation period, Mr Vichit said.
"Tour operators in China convinced us that if the Chinese government can control the situation by this month, tour groups are most likely to come back within two months," he said.
Meanwhile, the National Tourism Policy Committee, led by Public Health Minister Anutin Charnvirakul, will hold a workshop with the private sector on Feb 13 to brainstorm additional aid measures for the tourism industry.