Recap: Global stock markets moved up at the end of the week as US jobs data showed a bigger-than-expected rise in non-farm payrolls in October after two months of weakness. As well, a drop in the unemployment rate to 5% increased the likelihood that the Federal Reserve will raise interest rates next month for the first time in almost a decade. The Thai market also advanced.
The SET Index moved an a narrow range between 1,395.35 and 1,423.42 points and closed at 1,414.54, up 1.4% from the previous week, in trade averaging 48.81 billion baht per day. Foreign investors were net buyers of 3.46 billion baht, brokers bought 3.38 billion and institutional investors 3.8 billion. Retail investors were net sellers of 10.64 billion baht.
Big movers: Top loser SSI fell 20% to 0.04 baht, followed by SAPPE, down 11.1% to 22.90 baht, and ROH, off 1.5% to 32.50 baht. Top gainer TPA rose 41. 6% to 10.90 baht. JAS led both in volume and turnover at 14.88 billion baht for a gain of 6.2% to 6 baht. It was followed by PTT, up 7.6% to 296 baht; and ITD, down 4.9% to 7.85 baht.
Newsmakers: US non-farm payrolls rose by 271,000, compared with 142,000 in September and well above economists' forecasts of 180,000. Fed Chair Janet Yellen, in earlier testimony to Congress, said strength in the labour market appeared to be sustainable, setting the stage for a rate hike in December.
Thailand's Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) voted unanimously to keep its benchmark rate at 1.5%, as expected, saying a cut would heighten the downside risk from international factors.
Mobile market leader Advanced Info Service (ADVANC) reached a tentative deal for a long-term lease of 13,000 cellular towers from state-owned TOT Plc. Previously, ADVANC had proposed a joint venture to manage the towers, but TOT insisted the towers were its assets. ADVANC subsequently abandoned a plan to seek arbitration.
Thailand's consumer confidence index for October rose for the first time in 10 months to 73.4 points thanks to the government's stimulus measures.
Thailand's free trade agreement (FTA) with Chile takes effect today, with tariffs on 92.4% of the 7,855 items traded between the countries to be waived. The remaining tariffs will fall to zero over the next few years. Last year, two-way trade amounted to US$960 million, with the figure expected to double over the next three to five years.
The Fiscal Policy Office (FPO) plans to improve the withholding tax system to reduce overlapping payments and set appropriate rates, saying withholding tax rates in the current system vary considerably depending on the type of income source.
The International Trade Promotion Department has signed an agreement with Saha Pathana Inter-Holding (SPI) and PTT Global Chemical (PTTGC) to develop the infrastructure, logistics and transport systems, as well as utilities for the special economic zone in Mae Sot in Tak province.
Around 80% of the village funds that qualify for 60 billion baht in new stimulus funds have applied for the money, with 63% of the total no-interest funding approved so far. As well, almost a third of the 100 billion baht available for soft loans for SMEs has been drawn down.
The cabinet last week approved new tax incentives for businesses that have not applied for Board of Investment privileges but are ready to start their projects within six months.
The Thai National Shippers' Council (TNSC) expects 2016 exports to grow by 2%, mainly driven by government stimulus measures. Nonetheless, it warns exports remain at risk from the tepid global recovery and volatile exchange rate. It expects full-year exports in 2015 will shrink by 5% from last year.
The National Broadcasting and Telecommunications Commission (NBTC) said the 900-MHz spectrum auction scheduled for this week would be pushed back Dec 15 as TOT Plc continued to assert its rights to the frequency. Sister agency CAT Telecom has been making legal waves as well, but the regulator insists that auctions for 4G licences on the 1800 MHz frequency will go ahead this Wednesday as planned.
Prime Minister Prayut Chan-o-cha has said he would announce the government's policy on the Trans-Pacific Partnership on Dec 9. Indonesia has already said it wanted to join the US-led trade and investment pact, which would leave Thailand and the Philippines as the only two major Asean economies not participating.
The Office of Transport and Traffic Policy and Planning says a study on construction of a monorail in Phuket would be ready next month, with findings sent to the Transport Ministry for consideration in January.
Coming up this week: The IPO calendar is busy with four new market entrants. The WHA Business Complex REIT (WHABT) will begin trading on the SET today at the IPO price of 10 baht. The retail space rental specialist JAS Asset Plc (J) will enter the SET tomorrow at 2.77 baht per share. Siamraj Plc (SR) will begin trading on the MAI at 3.50 baht on Wednesday, followed a day later by the southern ferry operator Raja Ferry Port Plc (RP) at 12 baht.
Japan will announce third-quarter GDP figures tomorrow, with most analysts forecasting a further slowdown.
China will report lending activity at midweek, with the figures closely watched for signs that the latest interest-rate reduction is having an impact.
Expect movement in some shares expected to enter or exit the MSCI ahead of the semi-annual review of the influential index on Friday.
Stocks to watch: Tisco Securities' stock picks for November are BJCHI, CPALL, INTUCH, JAS, QH, SAWAD, SF and SPA. Keep an eye on ADVANC, INTUCH and TRUE ahead of this week's 4G auction. Other interesting stocks include AAV, AOT, BTS, CPN, QH, CC, CK, STEC, CPALL and HMPRO.
Bualuang Securities has buy recommendations on HMPRO, LPN, SYNEX, AF, AAV and STANLY. It suggests selling BIGC and MINT.
Technical view: Tisco Securities sees support at 1,380 and resistance at 1,430. Bualuang Securities sees support at 1,404 and resistance at 1,430.
