Recap: The cautious tone of Federal Reserve Chair Janet Yellen's comments on the global economy that lessened prospects for a US interest-rate increase triggered a global stock market rally last week. Positive investor response to her views also pushed the Thai stock market back above 1,400 points.
The SET Index moved in a range of 1,386.29 and 1,419.92 points and closed at 1,400.72, up 0.4% from the previous week, in brisk trade averaging 42.2 billion baht a day. Foreign investors were net buyers of a hefty 15.42 billion baht while others took profits. Brokers were net sellers of 2.41 billion baht, institutional investors sold 5.85 billion and retail investors 7.16 billion.
Big movers: Top gainer SSI rose 33.3% to 0.04 baht and top loser TRUE shed 9.8% to 7.35 baht. Leading in volume was LHBANK, off 2.1% to 1.86 baht on news of a deal with a Taiwanese investor. Leading in trading value were KBANK, down 2.6% to 169 baht; ADVANC, off 2.7% to 178.50 baht; and PTT, down 1.8% to 278 baht.
Newsmakers: Janet Yellen said that the US central bank should proceed cautiously as it looks to raise interest rates, pushing back on some colleagues who have suggested another move may be just around the corner. Mrs Yellen said she still expected that headwinds from weak growth abroad, low oil prices and uncertainty over China would abate and allow the US recovery to continue alongside a "gradual" series of rate hikes.
Economic growth in China is projected to slow this year and next, weighing on overall expansion in developing Asia, according to the Asian Development bank (ADB). It sees expansion of 6.5% this year and 6.3% in 2017, compared with 6.9% in 2015, owing to factors such as reduced investment in industries with excess capacity and emerging labour shortages.
Standard & Poor's (S&P) cut its outlook on China from stable to negative, warning that economic rebalancing was taking longer than expected.
The ADB slashed Thailand's economic growth outlook for this year to 3% from 3.5%, citing gloomy global prospects. Fragile growth in big industrial economies and China's slowdown are the main factors.
Japan's factory output in February fell the most since the 2011 Fukushima earthquake devastated the supply chain, stoking fears of another recession and renewing pressure on policymakers to take action. Industrial output fell 6.2% month-on-month, following a 3.7% rise in January.
A spending spree is anticipated during Songkran after the cabinet approved a deduction of up to 15,000 baht from taxable income for dining and travel expenses, backed by tax invoices, from April 9-17.
Despite an unexpected 10% rise in February caused by one-off shipment of military hardware and a still-unexplained spike in gold exports, a first-quarter contraction of more than 5% is still expected, says Nopporn Thepsithar, chairman of the Thai National Shippers' Council.
External headwinds could convince the Bank of Thailand to cut its benchmark interest rate in the coming months, said a senior central bank official.
The Bank of Thailand has entered a bilateral agreement under the Qualified Asean Banking (QAB) framework with the Indonesia Financial Services Authority. It will allow central banks in both countries to negotiate criteria for domestic banks with QAB status to carry out operations within the host country's borders and receive the same treatment as local banks. A similar agreement was struck with Malaysia last month.
Consumer prices fell for a 15th straight month in March, but officials predict a reversal this month on cheaper farm items and oil. The Commerce Ministry index based on 450 products and services fell by 0.46% year-on-year in March, easing slightly from a 0.5% drop in February and 0.53% in January.
LH Financial Group (LHBANK) has entered into a memorandum of understanding to offer a 35.6% stake to Taiwan's CTBC Bank in a deal worth 16.6 billion baht. The deal is expected to be completed by late in the third quarter.
A new auction for a 900-megahertz 4G spectrum licence will take place on June 24, says the National Broadcasting and Telecommunications Commission (NBTC). The reserve price will begin at 75.7 billion baht, the winning bid made by JAS Mobile Broadband before it walked away because of an inability to attract a Chinese partner to help foot the bill.
Thai Union Group Plc (TU), the world's biggest tuna exporter, is acquiring a 40% stake in the Indian shrimp processor Avanti Frozen Foods Plc (AFFPL), worth 1.25 billion rupees (665 million baht).
The cabinet has authorised the Mass Rapid Transit Authority of Thailand (MRTA) to raise 150.3 billion baht through a public-private partnership (PPP) to develop the Yellow and Pink mass transit lines. The 34.5-km Pink Line from Khae Rai to Min Buri will cost 53.49 billion baht and the 30.4km Yellow Line from Lat Phrao to Samrong 51.81 billion.
A business rehabilitation plan for Sahaviriya Steel Industries Plc (SSI) is expected to be completed by August, one of its bank creditors has said. Among the key elements are a debt-to-equity swap and a new strategic partner. The completed plan is scheduled to be submitted to the court in November.
Coming up this week: Euro zone retail sales in February, the Markit euro zone composite PMI, and Thailand's consumer confidence index will be released tomorrow, followed by the Caixin China PMI for March on Wednesday.
Minutes of the March 15-16 Fed meeting and US jobless claims will be released on Thursday.
Due on Friday are Japanese trade figures for February and consumer confidence for March, along with Chinese FDI in March.
Stocks to watch: Asia Plus Securities has buy recommendations for PTTEP, PTT, IRPC, BDMS, KCE, CK and ITD. It also recommends stocks expected to post strong Q1 results, including BDMS, ERW, CENTEL, WORK, PTT, IRPC and KCE.
Tisco Securities has buy recommendations for AMATA, BEM, CPN, MAJOR, MC, QH, TCAP and TTCL.
Technical view: Thanachart Securities sees support at 1,389 and resistance at 1,420 points. Finansia Syrus Securities tips support at 1,390 with resistance at 1,420 points.
