Office says Thailand's fiscal position can withstand shocks

Office says Thailand's fiscal position can withstand shocks

The government can still depend on a sound fiscal position to cushion economic shocks, says Pornchai Thiraveja, director-general of the Fiscal Policy Office.

Thailand has sufficient fiscal space to support crises that may take up 10% of GDP, he said.

In terms of economic stability, Thai financial institutions have a Bank for International Settlements ratio of 19.9%, while the Bank of Thailand threshold is set at 8.5%.

Non-performing household loans accounted for 2.7% of total outstanding loans.

Financial stability should help support efficient growth in the long run, said Mr Pornchai.

The government has an adequate fiscal buffer to accommodate future shocks amid heightening uncertainty, he said.

Even though the estimated public debt-to-GDP ratio at the end of fiscal 2023 amounted to 11.1 trillion baht, much of this consists of public debt for which the government is not directly liable.

Dubbed contingent liabilities, these amount to 1.79 trillion baht or 10.1% of GDP, particularly the debt of state enterprises, which is not guaranteed by the government, covering PTT Plc, the Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand, the Provincial Electricity Authority and the Metropolitan Electricity Authority.

Excluding contingent liabilities, public debt accounts for 52.4% of GDP, which is resilient enough to support the volatility of global financial markets, said Mr Pornchai.

He said the government has adequate policy space to address future economic risks.

Furthermore, Thailand's economic structure is flexible and able to cope well with various risk factors, said Mr Pornchai.

The economy has various sectors affecting growth, with a high dispersion of GDP contribution across sectors, enabling it to address internal and external risk factors, he said. If one sector is stagnant, others can drive the economy.

Thailand also has strong, even-handed regulations and supervision of the financial sector, including a high level of compliance with international standards, supporting its resiliency against financial risks and vulnerabilities, said Mr Pornchai.

He said the labour supply in Thailand is relatively flexible, able to absorb adverse economic shocks through the informal sector, particularly agriculture.

Job transitions to other industries or other countries are not difficult, said Mr Pornchai.

The country's farming sector consistently plays a vital role as a producer of crops for both domestic consumption and exports.

The agricultural sector has the potential to support the economy during a crisis or economic slowdown, he said.

In addition, timely government policies that align with the economic context as well as sound fiscal and monetary policies have supported the country's adaptation in times of crisis, particularly leveraging digital technology to implement economic schemes, such as stimulus measures, debt suspension for farmers and measures to support employment, said Mr Pornchai.

Thailand also enjoys a strategic location in the heart of Southeast Asia, making it an ideal regional hub for trade and investment, particularly for new S-curve industries and the Eastern Economic Corridor, he said.

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