When it comes to making strategic predictions for 2024 and beyond, the first thing to realise is that generative AI (GenAI) has changed executive leaders' way of thinking on every subject. How to create a more flexible and adaptable organisation that is better prepared for the future is their top priority.
"GenAI presents an opportunity to accomplish things never before possible in the scope of human existence," said Daryl Plummer, Distinguished VP Analyst at Gartner. "Chief information officers and executive leaders will embrace the risks of using GenAI so they can reap the unprecedented benefits.
"This is the first full year with GenAI at the heart of every strategic decision, and every other technology-driven innovation has been pushed out of the spotlight. GenAI has broken the mold and has kept building more excitement."
Gartner's strategic predictions are as follows:
By 2027, the productivity value of AI will be recognised as a primary economic indicator of national power.
National governments have a strong commitment to AI and are prioritising strategies that recognise AI as a key technology in both the private and public sectors. Incorporating AI into long-term national planning is being reinforced through the introduction of laws and regulations to bolster AI initiatives.
By 2027, GenAI tools will be used to explain legacy business applications and create appropriate replacements, reducing modernisation costs by 70%.
"The maturity of large language models [LLMs] offers an opportunity for CIOs to find a credible and long-awaited mechanism for modernising legacy business applications in a cost-effective manner," said Mr Plummer.
By 2028, Gartner predicts, enterprise spending on battling misinformation will surpass $30 billion, taking up 10% of marketing and cybersecurity budgets to combat a multi-front threat.
The most effective malinformation or misinformation influences humans' and machines' decision-making mechanisms and can be extremely hard to detect and shut down. Malinformation presents threats across three disparate functional areas: cybersecurity, marketing and AI.
By 2027, 45% of chief information security officers (CISOs) will expand their remit beyond cybersecurity, due to increasing regulatory pressure and expansion of the attack surface.
Responsibilities for security management and digital assets are currently fragmented across multiple divisions and teams, with the CISO overseeing the overall digital asset portfolio. This creates inconsistencies in support for regulatory disclosure, assurance of digital security and effective management of security incidents, reducing the overall performance of the organisation.
Expanding the portfolio of the CISO will enable a unification of security management, providing oversight of the consolidated security incident management process throughout the organisation.
By 2028, the rate of unionisation among knowledge workers will increase by 1,000%, motivated by the adoption of GenAI.
Executives are quick to call out AI as a cause of positions being eliminated. Therefore, it is important for executive leaders to communicate clearly with their employees their intent for AI deployment. This will avoid the unintended consequences of AI anxiety building among staff.
Organisations that adopt GenAI and fail to clearly address AI anxiety among their knowledge workers will experience 20% higher rates of turnover.
In 2026, 30% of workers will use "digital charisma filters" to achieve previously unattainable advances in their career.
A digital charisma filter prompts and sifts communications to make people more socially effective in various situations and interactions where they wish to excel. Such filters will also improve organisations' abilities to expand hiring to include more diverse workers.
"Organisations can expand their talent pool by incorporating the use of digital charisma filter assistants to improve the congruency of interactions at all phases of recruiting and employment," said Mr Plummer.
By 2027, 25% of Fortune 500 companies will actively recruit neurodivergent talent with conditions like autism, ADHD (attention-deficit/hyperactivity disorder) and dyslexia to improve business performance.
Fortune 500 companies are already investing in neurodiversity hiring programmes and are seeing impacts on engagement and business outcomes.
Through 2026, 30% of large companies will have a dedicated business unit or sales channels to access fast-growing machine customer markets.
Machine customers will force a reshaping of key functions such as supply chain, sales, marketing, customer service, digital commerce and customer experience. In fact, by 2025, more than 25% of sales and service centres in large organisations will be fielding calls from machine customers.
"Machine customers will need their own sales and service channels because they make transactions at high speeds and the volume of decision variables they use far exceed human capabilities," said Mr Plummer. "Machine customers will require different talent, skills and processes that may not exist in a human-customer focused division."
By 2028, there will be more smart robots than frontline workers in manufacturing, retail and logistics due to labour shortages.
Most manufacturing, retail and logistics companies cannot find or retain enough people to support their day-to-day operations. This will cause supply chain organisations to struggle to find enough front-line workers over the next decade.
Robots will help fill this gap. A December 2022 Gartner survey found that 96% of supply chain technology workers have either deployed or plan to deploy cyber-physical automation and 35% have already deployed robots, with 61% piloting or in the middle of their first implementation.
By 2026, 50% of G20 members will experience monthly electricity rationing, turning energy-aware operations into either a competitive advantage or a major failure risk.
Ageing grid infrastructures are limiting the ability to add electricity generating capacity, yet demand for electricity continues to increase. Businesses are assessing energy price and accessibility as a competitiveness factor, which means stable access to electricity for customers will become a competitive advantage.
