Industry panel bullish on Q2 outlook

Industry panel bullish on Q2 outlook

Red Sea tension expected to ease

Gantry cranes next to shipping containers at Bangkok Port. The JSCCIB maintains its GDP growth forecast for this year at 2.8-3.3%, with exports expected to expand by 2-3%. (Photo: Bloomberg)
Gantry cranes next to shipping containers at Bangkok Port. The JSCCIB maintains its GDP growth forecast for this year at 2.8-3.3%, with exports expected to expand by 2-3%. (Photo: Bloomberg)

The Thai economy, which is expected to grow slowly this year, should improve in the second quarter thanks to state budget spending and easing tension in the Red Sea region, says the Joint Standing Committee on Commerce, Industry and Bangkok (JSCCIB).

GDP growth this year was projected by the National Economic and Social Development Council to be 2.7% as Thailand's fuel consumption in January decreased.

The JSCCIB believes economic circumstances will improve in the second quarter when the impact on commercial shipping from Houthi rebel attacks should ease, benefiting international trade, said Kriengkrai Thiennukul, chairman of the Federation of Thai Industries.

As for budget allocation in fiscal 2024, the government said earlier the parliamentary session to consider the budget bill should be completed by April.

Mr Kriengkrai chaired the JSCCIB's meeting on the economic outlook on Wednesday.

The Thai economy should also benefit from a tourism and export recovery, with the Chinese economy estimated to grow 5% this year, he said.

The JSCCIB predicts the number of foreign arrivals reaching the government's target of 35 million this year, as projected by the Tourism Authority of Thailand, thanks in part to the government's visa-free policy to draw more foreign tourists.

"Amid these positive factors, the committee wants the government to launch new measures to lift the economy and people's purchasing power," said Mr Kriengkrai.

The government needs to propel the economy by paying more attention to exports, he said.

Though shipments are expanding, the recovery rate is slow and Thailand needs new markets for its products, said Mr Kriengkrai.

Consumer purchasing power remains weak because of high household debt levels, estimated at greater than 90% of GDP.

Small and medium-sized enterprises also need help as it is difficult for them to access financing, he said.

The JSCCIB is maintaining its GDP growth forecast for this year in a range of 2.8-3.3%, with exports expected to expand by 2-3% and inflation tallying 0.7-1.2%.

The projection assumes the government can implement its controversial 10,000-baht digital money handout scheme.

In another development, the Department of Energy Business on Wednesday reported total fuel consumption in the country decreased by 5.2% year-on-year to 153.3 million litres per day (MLD) in January.

Diesel consumption was 69.3 MLD on average, down by 11.4% year-on-year, while demand for gasoline and gasohol rose by 2.7% to 32.2 MLD.

Demand for liquefied petroleum gas dropped by 1.6% year-on-year to 16.2 million kilogrammes per day as the business cycle slowed in the petrochemical industry in Asia.

Jet fuel consumption soared by 15.6% year-on-year to 16.3 MLD thanks to the visa-free scheme that increased travel among foreign visitors.

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