Thai exports this year could grow by 4%, exceeding the target of 1-2%, thanks to the economic recovery of key trading partners and relaxed global monetary policies.
Poonpong Naiyanapakorn, director-general of the Trade Policy and Strategy Office (TPSO), said exports in October increased by 14.6% to US$27.2 billion (897 billion baht), marking a fourth consecutive month of growth.
Imports increased by 15.9% to $28 billion (935 billion baht), resulting in a trade deficit of $794 million (38 million baht).
For the first 10 months of 2024, Thai exports gained by 4.9% to $250 billion (8.8 trillion baht), while imports increased by 6.6% to $257 billion, resulting in a trade deficit of $6.8 billion (345 billion baht).
Regarding the export outlook for 2024, TPSO anticipates robust growth the remainder of the year, rising to 4% growth, exceeding the annual target of 2% or $296 billion (10 trillion baht).
This optimism is driven by the recovery of industrial sectors in key trading partners, relaxed global monetary policies, growth in agricultural and food product exports during the holiday season, and reduced logistics costs from declining shipping rates, noted the office.
However, TPSO said challenges persist, including uncertainty about US trade policies after Donald Trump takes office as president in January, exchange rate volatility, ongoing geopolitical tensions, and potential impacts from India's rice export policy changes, which could affect Thai rice exports.
The Commerce Ministry is monitoring these factors to develop effective strategies to address them.
The ministry said discussions have begun with the Thai Chamber of Commerce, the Federation of Thai Industries, and the Thai National Shippers' Council (TNSC), along with input from overseas commercial offices, to set export goals for 2025.
There is a consensus exports should continue to grow next year, with the ministry scheduled to announce the 2025 targets next month.
Exports of agricultural and agro-industrial products increased in October by 7.2% year-on-year, with the former expanding 6.8% and the latter 7.6%.
Products that posted export gains included rice; rubber; fresh, chilled, frozen and processed chicken; canned and processed seafood; pet food; and canned and processed fruit.
Shipments of some products decreased, namely fresh, chilled, frozen and dried fruit; chicken; tapioca products; sugar; and animal and vegetable fats and oils.
Exports of industrial products increased by 18.7% year-on-year for the period, with significant expansions for computers, equipment and parts; rubber products; machinery and mechanical components; chemicals; plastic pellets; iron, steel and related products; air conditioners and parts; and transformers and parts.
Meanwhile, exports declined for automobiles, equipment and auto parts; semiconductors; transistors; and diodes.
Chaichan Chareonsuk, chairman of the TNSC, said exports in October marked a record high over 19 months as a result of collaboration between the government and the private sector.
"For the remaining months of the year, if the value of exports amounts to $23 billion per month on average, exports will expand by 4% this year, assuming the baht remains at an average of 35 to the dollar," said Mr Chaichan.
