PTT report sees oil prices decreasing
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PTT report sees oil prices decreasing

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A file photo shows Shell's deepwater oil platform Appomattox, off the coast of Louisiana. The energy sector welcomed US President Donald Trump's recent comments regarding his energy policies.
A file photo shows Shell's deepwater oil platform Appomattox, off the coast of Louisiana. The energy sector welcomed US President Donald Trump's recent comments regarding his energy policies.

Global energy market prices are expected to decline as new US president Donald Trump recently announced plans to increase domestic production of oil and gas, according to the weekly global oil market report issued by national oil and gas conglomerate PTT Plc.

Worldwide oil production is expected to exceed demand after Trump announced support for domestic crude oil production, according to the report.

He declared a national energy emergency on his first day in office and signed an executive order on energy to lift US crude oil drilling and production.

US crude oil production for the week last Friday was 13.5 million barrels per day, a record high.

The executive order rolled back an order by former president Joe Biden, opening the National Petroleum Reserve-Alaska in the Arctic National Wildlife Refuge to oil and gas drilling.

The US Geological Survey estimates the area has 895 million barrels of crude oil reserves.

Platts, a global provider of energy and commodities information and benchmark price assessments, reported that Russia's seaborne crude oil exports in the week ending Jan 19 increased by 730,000 barrels per day from the previous week to 3.8 million barrels per day, the highest in seven weeks.

The volume of Russian crude oil exports was 1.35 million barrels per day, though the destinations were not specified. Platts believes most of the shipments go to China and India, despite US sanctions on Russian oil tankers, accounting for 22% of Russia's seaborne oil exports in 2024.

The Joint Organisations Data Initiative, an international collaboration to improve the availability and reliability of data on petroleum and natural gas, reported that Saudi Arabia's crude oil exports in November last year increased by 4.7% from the previous month to 6.21 million barrels per day, while domestic refineries also imported 383,000 barrels of crude oil per day less than the previous month to hit 2.35 million barrels per day, a further indication that energy prices, led by oil prices, will decline.

In a related matter, Prasert Sinsukprasert, permanent energy secretary, said Thai energy authorities are optimistic about lower electricity bills, with the power tariff falling from 4.15 baht per kilowatt-hour (unit) in part because of the impact of Trump's new energy policy.

The current power tariff, which is used to calculate electricity bills, is 4.15 baht a unit, applicable between January and April this year. Roughly 60% of the power price per unit is derived from the fuel tariff, and 60% of the power generated in Thailand uses gas.

Poonpat Leesombatpiboon, secretary-general of the Energy Regulatory Commission, said Trump's orders will not only impact oil prices, but also natural gas prices because the US was the world's top liquefied natural gas and crude oil exporter in 2023, according to the US Energy Information Administration.

According to Reuters, Saudi Energy Minister Prince Abdulaziz bin Salman held talks in Riyadh on Monday with his Iraqi and Libyan counterparts, Hayan Abdel-Ghani and Khalifa Abdulsadek, to support the stability of global energy markets.

Opec+, which groups the Saudi-led Opec and allies such as Russia, is scheduled to hold a meeting of its Joint Ministerial Monitoring Committee on Feb 3.

Trump has publicly called on Saudi Arabia and Opec to lower oil prices, saying doing so would end the war in Ukraine.

Opec+ has yet to react to Trump's call. The group already has a plan in place to start raising oil output from April, gradually unwinding previous cuts, but it has been delayed several times because of weak demand.

Asked about Trump's comments, Saudi Economy Minister Faisal al-Ibrahim told a panel at the World Economic Forum in Davos on Friday that Saudi Arabia and Opec seek long-term oil market stability.

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